人口与经济Issue(2)：85-103,19.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.02.007
"患贫"还是"患不均"?
Choosing High Income or Equality:The Causal Effects of Income Level and Income Differentiation on Labor Mobility Network
摘要
Abstract
Previous literature has predominantly focused on the impact of income levels on labor mobility,but overlooking income differentiation and its network effect.Based on the monitoring data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2017,this study constructs a labor mobility network and employs the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM)and counterfactual simulations to examine the complex influences of regional income levels and income disparities on the labor mobility network.The findings reveal as follows:1)Labor force is driven by poverty and inequality:labor force moves towards higher-income areas,while also flowing from regions with high income disparity to those with relative equality.Compared with the improvement of regional income level,improving the differentiation is more conducive to alleviating the outflow.2)There is heterogeneity between high-skilled and low-skilled labor forces.Highly-skilled labor attaches importance to income level,which tends to flow to high-income areas;thus,it is not sensitive to income differentiation.The low-skilled labor force is not only affected by the income level,but also the regional income differentiation level has a greater driving effect on it.3)Counterfactual simulations indicate that one standard deviation decrease in the Gini coefficient in the Northeast region would reduce labor outflow by approximately 220000 people and increase inflow by about 60000 people.When per capita income rises by one standard deviation,labor outflow decreases by about 120000 people,and inflow increases by approximately 40000 people.The impact of per capita income on labor mobility is complex,that is to say,without an improvement in the Gini coefficient,merely increasing income levels does not necessarily ameliorate labor outflow.The conclusions of this paper reveal the intricate relationship between income and labor mobility,which offers a new perspective for the study of labor mobility networks and provides significant policy implications for regional coordinated development and high-quality population development.关键词
劳动力流动网络/收入效应/时间指数随机图模型/网络因果效应/反事实模拟Key words
labor flow network/income effect/Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model/network causal effect/counterfactual simulation分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王群勇,孙倩.."患贫"还是"患不均"?[J].人口与经济,2025,(2):85-103,19.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"社会网络的计量经济理论与应用研究"(22BJY160). （22BJY160）
