人口与经济Issue(2)：104-118,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.02.008
碳排放权交易对劳动力需求的影响研究
Study on the Impact of Carbon Emissions Trading on Labor Demand:A New Perspective Based on Technological Transformation
摘要
Abstract
In 2013,the Chinese government initiated the carbon emission trading(CET)pilot policy,aiming to achieve the goals of"carbon neutrality"and"carbon peaking".However,the implementation of CET undoubtedly increases the production cost pressure on most high-emission enterprises,potentially leading to downsizing or even closure of some enterprises,thereby posing a potential negative impact on employment stability.Given that employment conditions are crucial to economic development and social stability,it is important to analyze the impact of CET on labor demand and its underlying mechanisms.Thus we can provide corresponding a policy basis and decision-support for the government.Grounded in the production function theory,we elucidate how CET intrinsically regulates labor demand by embedding the CET mechanism into the production function model,and analyze the mechanism of CET's heterogeneous impact on labor demand across different types of enterprises.Based on data from pilot enterprises spanning from 2005 to 2019,we empirically test the theoretical mechanisms using the overlapping PSM-DID model.The research finds that CET significantly reduces labor demand in the pilot enterprises.The mechanism analysis reveals that the inhibitory effect of CET on labor demand is jointly driven by multiple effects of technological transformation,among which the scale effect and productivity effect of technological transformation promote employment,while the factor substitution effect inhibits employment,with the promoting effects being smaller than the inhibiting effect.The impact of CET on labor demand exhibits time-varying characteristics,with labor demand declining first and then rebounding between 2013 and 2019.CET has a employment destruction effect on polluting enterprises and low-skilled labor but a employment destruction effect on clean enterprises and high-skilled labor.Based on these findings,we propose that the government should optimize the talent cultivation system,establish a comprehensive labor market monitoring system,and accurately obtain enterprise information to assist polluting enterprises with batch rectification.These measures aim to ensure the stable development of the labor market under CET.关键词
碳排放权交易/技术改造/劳动力需求/就业破坏效应/就业创造效应Key words
carbon emission trading/technological transformation/labor demand/employment destruction effect/employment creation effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王静,蔡培峰..碳排放权交易对劳动力需求的影响研究[J].人口与经济,2025,(2):104-118,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"能源革命背景下电力市场体制机制改革研究"(19ZDA083). （19ZDA083）
