水利水电科技进展2025，Vol.45Issue(2)：9-16,45,9.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2025.02.002
沁河流域经济社会与生态用水平衡分析及预测
Analysis and prediction of water use balance between economic society and ecology in the Qinhe River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the theory and quantitative methods of socio-economic and ecological water use balance,combined with the SWAT model,a research approach for the balance between socio-economic and ecological water use in the Qinhe River Basin was proposed.The socio-economic and ecological water use balance status in the Qinhe River Basin from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed,and the equilibrium points of socio-economic and ecological water use for planning level years(2025,2030,and 2035)under future climate change scenarios were predicted.The results show that the imbalance indices of socio-economic and ecological water use in the Qinhe River Basin from 2005 to 2020 were all negative,indicating a persistent ecological water deficit in the basin.The imbalance index for the current year exhibits a fluctuating upward trend,and the socio-economic and ecological water use balance status is gradually improved.Under the rainfall frequencies of 95%,75%and 50%,the predicted balance points of socio-economic and ecological water use in 2025 are 0.76,0.66 and 0.63,respectively,those in 2030 are 0.67,0.63 and 0.52,respectively,and those in 2035 are 0.54,0.43,and 0.41,respectively.关键词
经济社会与生态用水平衡/区域水平衡/人水关系/SWAT模型/沁河流域Key words
water use balance between economic society and ecology/regional water balance/human-water relationship/SWAT model/the Qinhe River Basin分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
田锦涛,左其亭,巴音吉,全志淼,纪义虎..沁河流域经济社会与生态用水平衡分析及预测[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(2):9-16,45,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200201) （2021YFC3200201）
中国工程科技发展战略河南研究院战略咨询研究项目(2024HENYB01) （2024HENYB01）
中国地质调查局项目(DD20220885) （DD20220885）
