水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(3)：36-44,54,10.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.03.001
大通河干流径流变化与预测分析
Runoff change and prediction analysis of Datong River mainstream
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to explore the evolution characteristics and patterns of runoff in the mainstream of the Datong River and investigate the relationship between past evolution characteristics and future trends,providing a reference for the rational utilization of water resources in Datong River basin.[Methods]The monthly runoff data from the Qingshizui,Tiantang,Xiangtang and Liancheng hydrological stations,covering the period from 1977 to 2022,were selected as the base data.The intra-annual variation in runoff was analyzed using three indicators:non-uniformity coefficient,concentration degree,and relative amplitude.Statistical methods such as M-K test,sliding t-test,and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the inter-annual trends in runoff.The grey prediction model was used to forecast the future runoff trends.[Results](1)In terms of annual distribution,the runoff in the Datong River mainstream has become more evenly distributed over the years due to human activities(such as engineering regulation and storage),although it still predominantly follows a unimodal distribution.(2)Regarding the trend of runoff change,the 5-year sliding average series at all four stations showed gradual increases and decreases with fluctuation.The overall runoff sequence exhibited distinct alternations between wet and dry periods.Spatially,from 1977 to 2022,downstream runoff increased from 25.90 m3/s to 27.09 m3/s.(3)Both the annual and seasonal runoff at the four stations displayed positive persistence.The mutation points for the Qingshizui,Tiantang,Liancheng and Xiangtang Stations occurred in 1989,2010,1998,1980,2018 and 1994,respectively.(4)The runoff of the Datong River mainstream exhibited multiple temporal scales,with periodic oscillations mainly concentrated in the 1980s to 2000s.(5)A prediction for runoff from 2023 to 2026 revealed an upward trend in the upper reaches of the Datong River,while downstream runoff showed a downward trend.[Conclusion]The results of runoff simulation are consistent with the results of persistence analysis,showing that the future Tiantang Station will continue to maintain an upward trend,Liancheng Station will maintain a weak downward trend,and Xiangtang Station will maintain a strong downward trend.关键词
大通河干流/径流年内变化/径流年际变化/径流预测分析Key words
Datong River mainstream/intra-annual variation of runoff/inter-annual variation of runoff/runoff prediction analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孙栋元,张文睿,牛最荣,马亚丽,武兰珍,王兴繁,崔艳强..大通河干流径流变化与预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(3):36-44,54,10.基金项目
甘肃省高等学校青年博士资助项目(2022QB-070) （2022QB-070）
甘肃省省级生态文明建设重点研发专项(24YFFF002) （24YFFF002）
甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK084,23GSLK087,23GSLK088) （23GSLK084,23GSLK087,23GSLK088）
