水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(3)：214-221,8.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.03.039
2000-2019年黄淮海流域植被覆盖度变化归因研究
Study on the attribution of vegetation coverage change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin from 2000 to 2019
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to scientifically assess the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin,and to quantify their respective contributions,providing scientific recommendations for the optimization of soil and water conservation.[Method]Based on meteorological data from 226 stations across the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin and surrounding areas,as well as SPOT-NDVI data,the study employed methods such as the pixel dichotomy,linear slope,Mann-Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation to examine the time-lag effects of vegetation coverage changes in response to climate factors,including evapotranspiration,precipitation,and temperature.Time-lag effects were incorporated into residual analysis to evaluate the causes of vegetation coverage changes.[Result](1)From 2000 to 2019,the annual mean vegetation coverage in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin showed significant growth,with a linear slope of 0.038 per decade.(2)Vegetation coverage in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin responded to precipitation with a time-lag,mainly at 0-and 1-month lags,accounting for 52%and 48%respectively.The response to temperature was predominantly immediate(0-month lag)and at a 1-month lag,with proportions of 61%and 38%respectively.The response to potential evapotranspiration mainly exhibited 1-and 2-month lags,accounting for 49%and 34%,respectively.[Conclusion]The primary factor influencing vegetation change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin is human activities,with an average contribution of 67%.Climate change contributes an average of 33%.Approximately 47%of the region experiences human activity impacts exceeding 80%,with the highest contributions located in the northwest and southeast of the Yellow River Basin,the southern part of the Haihe River Basin,and the Huaihe River Basin.关键词
植被覆盖度/时滞效应/气候变化/人类活动/黄淮海流域Key words
vegetation coverage/time lag effect/climate change/human activities/Huang-Huai-Hai Basin分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
郑荣伟,张子元,高学睿,王庆明,黄志强..2000-2019年黄淮海流域植被覆盖度变化归因研究[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(3):214-221,8.基金项目
中国工程院院地合作项目(2023NMZA-01) （2023NMZA-01）
