水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(3)：251-259,269,10.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.03.014
西北地区水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调发展时空动态及预测分析
Research and forecast analysis on the coupling coordinated development of Water-Energy-Food system in Northwest China
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study investigates the degree of coupled and coordinated development of the Water-Energy-Food System(WEF system)in Northwest China,aiming to provide a reference for promoting the transformation toward sustainable and high-quality ecological and economic development.[Methods]Based on the data from 33 indicators covering 21 years(2002-2022)for the five provinces in Northwest China,the entropy value method and other methods were utilized to construct an evaluation system for WEF system indicators.On this basis,a coupling coordination degree model was constructed,and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the WEF system's coupling coordination degree in the five provinces were analyzed using ArcGIS and other software.Finally,the coupling coordination degree in the next 8 years was predicted by the gray prediction GM(1,1)model.[Results]The comprehensive development index of WEF system in the five provinces in Northwest China showed a general upward trend from 2002 to 2022,with the food subsystem performing relatively the best.The coupling degree showed a gradual converging trend,and the coupling coordination degree showed a steady upward trend.[Conclusion]Overall,the degree of coupling development of WEF system in the five provinces is relatively low.Shaanxi and Xinjiang are in a stage of marginal coupling.Gansu and Qinghai are on the verge of imbalance,and Ningxia is in the stage of mild imbalance.The main factors restricting the coupling coordinated development are lagging development of water resources and energy.It is expected that in 2023-2030,the five provinces in Northwest China will continue the previous coupling development trend.关键词
西北地区/水—能源—粮食/耦合度/耦合协调度/灰色预测Key words
Northwest China/Water-Energy-Food/coupling degree/coupling coordination degree/grey prediction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郝仪佳,夏咏,张扬,李先东..西北地区水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调发展时空动态及预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(3):251-259,269,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71973039) （71973039）
教育部人文社科资助项目(22YJC790063) （22YJC790063）
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(22A630001) （22A630001）
河南省社科规划项目(2020BJJ005) （2020BJJ005）
自治区普通高校人文社科重点研究基地项目(XJEDU2023J004) （XJEDU2023J004）
