水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(3)：300-311,12.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.03.027
模拟多情景下淮河生态经济带土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的空间响应
Simulating land use changes and spatial response of ecosystem service value in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt under multiple scenarios
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Land use changes in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt under multiple scenarios were simulated,and the spatial response and impact of these changes on ecosystem service value were analyzed,providing a scientific basis for achieving coordinated and sustainable development of land resource utilization and social economy.[Methods]Taking the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt as the research area,and based on land use data from 2000,2010,and 2020,the land use evolution patterns under the scenarios of natural development,economic priority,and low-carbon development in 2040 were simulated by the coupled MOP-PLUS model.The ecosystem service value(ESV)under each scenario was calculated,and the spatiotemporal dynamic charact-eristics of ESV were quantitatively analyzed.Furthermore,from a grid-scale perspective,the spatial distribution of ESV and its aggregation characteristics were analyzed,and areas for potential service enfacement were identified.[Results](1)Among the three preset scenarios,the economic priority scenario exhibited the largest reductions in cropland(1 342 989 hm2)and forestland(24 857 hm2),while the low-carbon development scenario showed the largest increases in forestland(117 990 hm2)and water areas(442 451 hm2).(2)Under the three scenarios in 2040,the ESV low-carbon development scenario(7.291 51×1011 Yuan)>natural development scenario(6.583 59×1011 Yuan)>economic development scenario(6.413 77×1011 Yuan)in the study area.(3)Under the low-carbon development scenario,the hot spots and significant hot spots in the northeast and southwest of the study area increased,exhibiting strong aggregation,while the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central plains of the study area.[Conclusion]Scientific planning and management of future land use are fundamental ways to maintain and improve the quality of the ecological environment.By comparing different scenarios,low-carbon development scenario can effectively optimize land use,significantly increase the ecosystem service value of the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt,enhance the potential of ecological services,and promote the coordinated development of regional ecology and economy.关键词
低碳/PLUS模型/土地利用变化/生态系统服务/淮河生态经济带Key words
low-carbon/PLUS model/land use change/ecosystem service/Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
姚侠妹,盛雨恬,祁慧敏,李蕙竹,姚晓洁,偶春..模拟多情景下淮河生态经济带土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的空间响应[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(3):300-311,12.基金项目
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目"淮河生态经济带安徽段生态环境分区识别及长效治理策略研究"(AHSKY2023D023) （AHSKY2023D023）
