水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(3)：373-383,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.03.018
基于土地利用变化的四川省碳储量时空演变与预测及驱动因素分析
Spatiotemporal evolution,forecast,and driving factor analysis of carbon storage in Sichuan Province based on land use change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to reveal the relationship between land use change and ecosystem carbon storage in Sichuan Province,deconstruct the driving mechanisms of carbon storage and forecast carbon storage values under different scenarios,providing scientific support for its investigation.[Methods]The PLUS-InVEST model was utilized to analyze the changes in ecosystem carbon storage in Sichuan Province from 1990 to 2020 and under three scenarios for 2030:natural development,economic development,and ecological protection.The driving forces behind the historical spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage were analyzed using the Geodetector method.[Results](1)From 1990 to 2020,carbon storage in Sichuan Province increased from 6.37×109 t to 6.44×109 t,with a cumulative increase of 7.038×107 t.The main reason for this increase was the conversion of grassland and farmland to forest land.(2)By 2030,carbon stocks under all three scenarios are expected to increase,reaching 6.46×109,6.45×109,and 6.49×109 t,respectively.(3)From 1990 to 2020,the main driving factors behind the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage in Sichuan Province were altitude,precipitation and distance to railways.Interactions among driving factors showed a dual-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement effect,predominantly nonlinear.[Conclusion]Ecological engineering such as the'Grain for Green'program is the main reason for the increase in ecosystem carbon storage in Sichuan Province.Affected by natural,locational,and economic factors,future efforts should focus on the conservation and expansion of forest and wetland areas.关键词
碳储量/InVEST模型/PLUS模型/地理探测器/四川省Key words
carbon storage/InVEST model/PLUS model/Geodetector/Sichuan Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
魏熙乐,李倩,邓爱平,刘君宝,乔乐..基于土地利用变化的四川省碳储量时空演变与预测及驱动因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(3):373-383,11.基金项目
江西省社会科学基金"萍乡市城乡融合发展对策研究"(21DQ14) （21DQ14）
江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目"在GIS技术背景下AEZ模型的萍乡土地综合承载力研究"(GJJ212701) （GJJ212701）
江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目"空间自相关背景下江西罗霄山脉集中连片区与长株潭城市群引力研究"(GJJ2202106) （GJJ2202106）
