生殖医学杂志2025，Vol.34Issue(3)：306-314,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-3845.2025.03.005
先兆流产合并绒毛膜下血肿患者不同妊娠结局预测模型的建立
Establishment of a predictive model for different pregnancy outcomes in threatened abortion patients with subchorionic hematoma
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the risk factors of abortion and premature delivery in threatened abortion patients with subchorionic hematoma(SCH),and establish a nomogram model based on the risk factors. Methods:Using a retrospective analysis method,clinical data of 147 threatened abortion patients with SCH from Yinchuang Guolong Orthopedic Hospital between June 2021 and June 2023 were collected.The patients were assigned to term delivery group(n=1 0 1),abortion group(n=3 2)and premature delivery group(n=14).The risk factors of abortion and premature delivery were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression,and a nomogram model was established,the predictive performance of the model was verified. Results:The results of multivariate logistic regression showed that the gestational age of SCH diagnosis[OR=1.216,95％CI(1.044,1.416),P=0.012],the duration of vaginal bleeding[OR=0.869,95％CI(0.799,0.945),P=0.001],the duration of hematoma existence[OR=0.882,95％CI(0.790,0.984),P=0.024],hematoma volume[OR=0.964,95％CI(0.934,0.995),P=0.025]were factors for predicting abortion.Hypogastralgia[OR=0.140,95％CI(0.028,0.693),P=0.016],the duration of hematoma existence[OR=0.741,95％CI(0.616,0.892),P=0.001],hematoma volume[OR=0.943,95％CI(0.901,0.988),P=0.013]were factors for predicting premature delivery.The areas under the curve of nomogram for predicting abortion and premature delivery were 0.871 and 0.896,the specificity was 64.36％and 80.20％,the sensitivity was 100.00％and 85.71％,and the Youden index was 0.644 and 0.659,respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that there was no statistically significant difference between the predicted and actual values of the model(P＞0.05). Conclusions:A risk factors-based nomogram model has certain predictive value for abortion and premature delivery of threatened abortion patients with SCH,which can facilitate medical staff to take active medical interventions.关键词
先兆流产/绒毛膜下血肿/妊娠结局/列线图模型/预测Key words
Threatened abortion/Subchorionic hematoma/Pregnancy outcome/Nomogram model/Prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
徐丽华,刘晓芳,雷鸣..先兆流产合并绒毛膜下血肿患者不同妊娠结局预测模型的建立[J].生殖医学杂志,2025,34(3):306-314,9.基金项目
宁夏回族自治区科技惠民专项项目(2022CMG03047) （2022CMG03047）
