太平洋学报2025，Vol.33Issue(2)：38-55,18.DOI:10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2025.02.004
大国经略边缘地带的战略偏好选择机制
The Strategic Preference Mechanism of Great Powers in Managing Peripheral Regions
摘要
Abstract
The debate over a state's dominant strategic preference between the status quo and revisionism has often overlooked the spatial dimension.Both offensive realism and defensive realism tend to emphasize of-fensive dominance and the universality of defense respectively,often citing a supporting case and counterex-amples.However,a state's strategic preferences may not exhibit uniform characteristics across all spatial re-gions.Although a country's peripheral and core interests do not coincide perfectly with geospatial proximity,there is often a geopolitical differentiation between core and periphery in the strategic placement of national interests.As the saying goes,"a dam of a thousand miles can collapse from an ant's nest",an excessive ex-pansion by great powers often leads to strategic miscalculations in seemingly peripheral areas more than their core interests,plunging them into the quagmire of war.On the other hand,an insufficient expansion by great powers always imply rational restraint,and the appeasement in peripheral regions may,at times,trig-ger threats to core areas.The lack of a clear distinction between core and peripheral interests can lead to an excessive reaction in the peripheral region.If peripheral interests are overly neglected,the geopolitical threat may spread from the periphery to the core,creating a domino effect.The strategic preferences of great powers in peripheral regions can be categorized into three forms namely peripheral contraction,peripheral buffering,and peripheral expansion.These preferences should be evaluated based on the intensity of the structural confrontation and the expected patterns of strategic interaction.The cases chosen in this article in-volve the geopolitical competition between maritime hegemonic powers and land-based great powers.It should not be assumed that a temporary easing of tensions over peripheral interests with a hegemon will nec-essarily lead to a positive diffusion of core interests between both sides.It is essential to anticipate the po-tential trend of peripheral interests.关键词
国家利益/边缘地带/体系结构/地缘政治/战略偏好Key words
national interests/peripheral regions/system structure/geopolitics/strategic preferences分类
政治法律引用本文复制引用
秦立志..大国经略边缘地带的战略偏好选择机制[J].太平洋学报,2025,33(2):38-55,18.基金项目
本文系国家社科基金一般项目"两极竞争背景下新兴崛起国'反遏制战略'研究"(21BGJ068)的阶段性研究成果. （21BGJ068）
