燕山大学学报2025，Vol.49Issue(2)：146-154,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-791X.2025.02.007
考虑退化相关性的电解电容实时剩余寿命预测
Research on residual life prediction of electrolytic capacitors considering degradation correlation
摘要
Abstract
The research on the degradation characteristics of electrolytic capacitors is mostly based on a single degradation feature at present,making it difficult to predict the remaining life of the capacitor accurately.In response to this situation,a binary linear Wiener process degradation model that considered the correlation of degradation features for real-time prediction of capacitor residual life is proposed.Firstly,the Box-Cox transformation is used to linearize the degradation data of capacitors,then the model parameters obtained by combining maximum likelihood estimation with self-sampling method are updated in real-time by Bayesian theory,and the Monte Carlo algorithm is used to solve the remaining life distribution of capacitors.Finally,it is verified by NASA test data and compared with algorithms based on Copula function for processing correlation.The results show that the prediction accuracy of this algorithm is about 0.729 8%,0.091 3%higher than the model that of the one-dimensional Wiener process model considering only capacitance value and equivalent ESR,respectively.The prediction accuracy is about 0.083 2%higher than that of the algorithm based on Copula theory,which can provide a basis for the formulation of the maintenance strategy of electrolytic capacitors depending on the situation.关键词
电解电容/实时剩余寿命预测/二元维纳过程/Box-Cox变换/Bayesian理论Key words
electrolytic capacitor/real-time residual life prediction/binary Wiener process/Box-Cox transformation/Bayesian theory分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李小波,汪翔,王睿轶..考虑退化相关性的电解电容实时剩余寿命预测[J].燕山大学学报,2025,49(2):146-154,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51907117) （51907117）
