农业展望2024，Vol.20Issue(12)：11-23,13.
区域性通胀压力对农产品价格的影响及展望
Impacts of Regional Inflationary Pressures on Agricultural Commodity Prices
摘要
Abstract
Based on the 2024 Global Economic Prospects and the data in 2023 and 2024,this paper systematically analyzed the impact mechanisms of regional inflationary pressures on agricultural commodity prices in Southeast Asia,Latin America,and Sub-Saharan Africa.By examining recent external shocks such as rising global fertilizer and fuel prices,climate change,and geopolitical risks,the study explored how these factors specifically affect agricultural markets in developing countries.The research found that agricultural production and market volatility in low-income countries are more sensitive to global price shocks,particularly under the 2023-2024 backdrop of imported inflationary pressures and rising production costs,exacerbating agricultural vulnerability.Through case studies from different regions,the paper evaluated the inflation and rice prices in Southeast Asia,inflation and coffee/banana prices in Latin America,and inflation and the volatility of smallholder economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.Drawing on regional experiences,policy recommendations were put forward from enhancing smallholder credit facilitation,strengthening agricultural subsidies,optimizing food reserve management,and promoting sustainable agricultural development,aiming to enhance agricultural resilience and address future long-term challenges.关键词
区域性通胀/农产品价格波动/发展中国家/农业政策/农业韧性Key words
regional inflation/agricultural commodity price volatility/developing countries/agricultural policy/agricultural resilience引用本文复制引用
张钟,毕洁颖,谢峥嵘..区域性通胀压力对农产品价格的影响及展望[J].农业展望,2024,20(12):11-23,13.基金项目
中国农业科学院创新工程"国际组织及多边创新机制建设"(CAAS-ASTIP-2024-AII) （CAAS-ASTIP-2024-AII）
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所"海外农业发展战略与大数据驱动智库建设"(CAAS-ASTIP-2024-AII) （CAAS-ASTIP-2024-AII）
