城市地质2025，Vol.20Issue(1)：70-80,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-3764.2025.01.009
自然灾害频发性评价及其对地区供水能力影响力研究:基于随机森林赋权—TOPSIS法
Evaluation of regional natural disaster frequency and impact on water supply capacity:Based on random forest empowerment-TOPSIS method
摘要
Abstract
This study utilizes the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2020 to evaluate the frequency of natural disaster occurrence using the random forest powering-TOPSIS method.In addition,the Tobit regression model is employed to analyze the influence of natural disaster frequency on regional water supply capacity.The grey correlation method is also applied to explore the impact of natural disaster frequency on regional water supply capacity.The findings reveal:1)There is a significant regional difference in the frequency and distribution of natural disasters nationwide,which can be divided into four levels,the first level is Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia and Sichuan,and the second level is Shandong,Guangdong,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Henan,Shaanxi and Yunnan.The third level contains many provinces and cities with an overall calculated value of natural disaster occurrence at around 0.25.The fourth level is mainly concentrated in the eastern region.2)In terms of spatial distribution,the frequency of natural disaster occurrence gradually increases from the east to the west,and the general distribution pattern is high in the west and low in the east,high in the north and low in the south.3)A significant negative correlation exists between the frequency of natural disasters and the regional water supply capacity.The Tobit model verifies that the frequency of natural disasters has a significant negative impact on the water supply capacity.4)In terms of influence,except for Ningxia,the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in all regions of China has a strong negative impact on water supply capacity.关键词
自然灾害频发性/供水能力/影响力/随机森林赋权/TOPSIS法Key words
the frequency of natural disasters/water supply capacity/influence/random forest empowerment/TOPSIS method引用本文复制引用
樊艳翔,雷社平,解建仓..自然灾害频发性评价及其对地区供水能力影响力研究:基于随机森林赋权—TOPSIS法[J].城市地质,2025,20(1):70-80,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51679188)资助 （51679188）
