草原与草坪2025，Vol.45Issue(1)：45-51,7.DOI:10.13817/j.cnki.cyycp.2025.01.006
基于MaxEnt模型预测冬虫夏草在青海省的潜在适生区
Predicting the potential habitat of Chinese Cordyceps in Qinghai Province based on MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]With human activities and global climate change,the province′s Chinese Cordyceps re-sources are facing a risk reduction.It is important to predict the potential distribution of Chinese Cordyceps in Qinghai province for the sustainable use of Chinese Cordyceps resources and the stabilization of the economic income of farm-ers and herdsmen.[Method]Based on 62 geographical distribution points of Chinese Cordyceps and 22 environmen-tal variables,the maximum entropy model MaxEnt and the geographic information system ArcGIS were used to simu-late the geographical distribution of Chinese Cordyceps,analyze the impact of environmental variables on the distribu-tion of Chinese Cordyceps,and divide the suitable growth grade and analyze the environmental characteristics of the suitable areas.[Result]The results showed that the AUC(area under the curve)value was higher than 0.9 and the model had high accuracy and was suitable for habitat suitability prediction of Chinese Cordyceps.The main environ-mental variables affecting the distribution of Chinese Cordyceps were calculated using the Jackknife cut method.The calculation demonstrated that the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of cordyceps sinensis were annual precipitation(613～727 mm),annual average temperature(-2～3℃),altitude(3 800～4 500 m)and the lowest temperature in the coldest month(-13～-11℃).The cumulative contribution rate of the above environmen-tal variables is 88.5%.The analysis of suitable areas showed that Chinese Cordyceps was mainly concentrated in Yushu City,Zadoi County,Chindu County,Nangqen County and Qumarleb County in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Madoi County,Maqen County,Gade County,Darlag County,Jiuzhi County and Banma County in Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Menyuan County in Haibei Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,and Dulan County in Haixi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture.[Conclusion]The results show that the MaxEnt model can well simulate the geographical distribution of Chinese Cordyceps,clarify the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of Chinese Cordyceps,and provide reference for the conservation of Chinese Cordyceps resources.关键词
青海省/冬虫夏草/MaxEnt模型/降水量/海拔/适生区Key words
Qinghai Province/Chinese Cordyceps/MaxEnt model/precipitation/elevation/suitable area分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
梁静,李秀璋,张振西,陈建博,唐楚煜,王涛,李玉玲..基于MaxEnt模型预测冬虫夏草在青海省的潜在适生区[J].草原与草坪,2025,45(1):45-51,7.基金项目
青海省科学技术厅项目(2021-SF-A4) （2021-SF-A4）
