广西植物2025，Vol.45Issue(3)：500-516,17.DOI:10.11931/guihaia.gxzw202402016
未来气候变化情景下中国植物物种地理分布变化趋势研究进展
Research progress on the changing trends in geographical distributions of plant species under future climate change scenarios in China
摘要
Abstract
Identifying the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of plant species is crucial for biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.Here,220 literatures published since 2010 on geographical distribution changes of plant species under future climate change scenarios in China were collected,and the research progress on the changes in geographical distribution ranges of plant species under future climate change scenarios was reviewed,problems and deficiencies were discussed,and future research directions were suggested.The results were as follows:(1)Since 2010,geographical distribution changes of 1 058 plant species in China under future climate change scenarios were analyzed,in which there were only 636 plant species with clear information of changes in their geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios.(2)Among 518 species of angiosperms,195 species showed an increasing trend and 245 species showed a decreasing trend for geographical distribution ranges under the future climate change scenarios;among 57 gymnosperms,12 species showed an increasing trend and 38 species showed a decreasing trend for geographical distribution ranges;the distribution range of 1 species of pteridophyte showed an increasing trend;among the 60 species of bryophytes,53 species showed a decreasing trend and 7 species showed an increasing trend for geographical distribution ranges;the geographical distribution ranges of other plant species were characterized by inconsistent changes or lack of change information.(3)Under the climate change scenarios,137 plant species would migrate to the Northwest,North China,and Northeast regions,19 species would migrate to high latitude and high altitude regions,125 species would move only to high latitude,and other plant species showed different directions or local migration information.(4)Under the future climate change scenarios,about 32 angiosperms,42 gymnosperms and 48 bryophytes species would face the risk of total loss of their geographical distribution ranges with the probability of greater than 0.6,while about 57 angiosperms and 96 gymnosperms would face the risk of total loss of their geographical distribution ranges without considering the probability.Research deficiencies include:① Number of plant species studied was still inadequate;② The selection of climate change scenarios and models was single;③ The lack of comprehensive consideration of climate and other environmental factors and the comparative study of multiple models;④The lack of systematic risk analysis of the loss of plant geographical distribution ranges under future climate change scenarios.In conclusion,in the future,while enriching the study on geographical distributions under future climate change scenarios for many plant species,it is necessary to strengthen the use of multiple climate change scenarios,develop niche models suitable for China's regional conditions,carry out comparative studies on geographical distribution changes of various plant species under different climate change scenarios,and strengthen the analysis of the risk of loss of plant geographical distribution ranges under future climate change scenarios.关键词
气候变化/植物物种/地理分布/影响/风险Key words
climatic change/plant species/geographical distribution/impacts/risk分类
生物学引用本文复制引用
王思雨,吴建国..未来气候变化情景下中国植物物种地理分布变化趋势研究进展[J].广西植物,2025,45(3):500-516,17.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0802304) （2022YFF0802304）
国家基础资源调查专项(2019FY101606). （2019FY101606）
