湖北农业科学2025，Vol.64Issue(2)：51-57,7.DOI:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.02.008
昌吉州人口-土地-经济城镇化耦合协调发展分析与预测
Analysis and forecast of coupling coordinated development of population-land-economy urbanization in Changji Prefecture
摘要
Abstract
Based on the panel data from 2012 to 2021,the comprehensive evaluation index system of population-land-economy ur-banization system was constructed.The entropy method,coupling coordination model and GM(1,1)grey model were selected to calcu-late and analyze the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination development of population-land-economy urbaniza-tion,and predict the coupling coordination of population-land-economy urbanization from 2022 to 2024.The results showed that the development level of population-land-economy urbanization and its subsystems showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2021,among which the development speed of land urbanization subsystem was the fastest.The coupling level of population-land-economy ur-banization system was high,and the coupling degree was 0.816～0.964 in the research period.The coupling coordinated development level of population-land-economy urbanization was also developed from the primary coordination in 2012 to the good coordination in 2021.From 2022 to 2024,the coupling coordination degree of population-land-economy urbanization system would continue to rise,and it would be expected to achieve high-quality coordination in 2023.Although the coupling coordination of population-land-econo-my urbanization in Changji Prefecture was well,when it would come to higher-quality development,the existing problems such as in-efficient land use,insufficient development power,industrial imbalance,and insufficient attention to human urbanization still existed.It was suggested to promote the reform of land and household registration system,improve the investment and financing system for new urbanization construction,upgrade the industrial structure,build a complementary system of urbanization functions,and strengthen the coordinated development of the system.关键词
人口城镇化/土地城镇化/经济城镇化/耦合协调/灰色预测/昌吉州Key words
population urbanization/land urbanization/economy urbanization/coupling coordination/gray forecast/Changji Prefec-ture分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
柴婧,苏向辉,马瑛,杨凯栋..昌吉州人口-土地-经济城镇化耦合协调发展分析与预测[J].湖北农业科学,2025,64(2):51-57,7.基金项目
新疆社科联2022年新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践研究课题(2022ZJFLY47) （2022ZJFLY47）
新疆农业大学2023年研究生校级科研创新计划项目(XJAUGRI2023026) （XJAUGRI2023026）
