空军工程大学学报2025，Vol.26Issue(2)：11-18,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1915.2025.02.002
基于概率统计和专家评价的飞机供电系统遂行任务能力评估
An Assessment of Capability for Mission in Aircraft Power Supply System Based on Probability Statistics and Expert Evaluation
摘要
Abstract
In view of the task capability evaluation in power supply system at an aircraft,a method based on statistical analysis and expert evaluation is proposed.Firstly,the power supply system at a certain type of aircraft is introduced,and its main failure modes and failure reasons are analyzed.Secondly,the Weibull distribution of power supply system faults is fitted through the statistical data from power supply system faults,and a method of calculating equipment fault probability during the task based on posterior knowledge is proposed to meet the requirements of equipment tasks.On this basis,according to the differ-ences in the specific environment and intensity of task,the environmental factors in the power supply sys-tem are rated by using the method of expert experience scoring in comprehensive consideration of the vi-bration,load,natural environment and other factors.The results show that the proposed method can ef-fectively predict the failure probability of the key components in the power supply system under the condi-tion of fulfilling the mission,and comprehensively evaluate the mission environmental factors,supporting the decision of fulfilling the mission.关键词
供电系统/威布尔分布/专家评价/装备能力评估/可靠性建模Key words
power supply system/Weibull distribution/expert evaluation/equipment capability evaluation/reliability modeling引用本文复制引用
胡辰宇,潘晋新,方欣,焦晓璇,景博..基于概率统计和专家评价的飞机供电系统遂行任务能力评估[J].空军工程大学学报,2025,26(2):11-18,8.基金项目
陕西省自然科学基金(2022JQ-586) （2022JQ-586）
