水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(2)：71-88,18.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.02.006
长黄淮海流域雨强变化特征及气象因子影响分析
Characterization of rainfall intensity changes and meteorological factors influence in the Yangtze-Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]In recent decades,the impact of global warming has intensified,leading to significant changes in precipitation patterns and other climate factors across Yangtze-Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins.This has resulted in a rise in extreme precipitation events and an increase in the frequency of droughts and floods.To refine the understanding of precipitation levels,further analysis is needed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of long-term trends in rainfall intensity,changes in rainy days,and the influence of temperature,atmospheric circulation,and other meteorological factors on rainfall intensity within the basins.[Methods]Based on the daily observation data collected from 417 meteorological stations within the basin spanning from 1956 to 2022,various statistical analyses are employed,including linear slope analysis,the Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend test,Sen's slope estimation,correlation analysis,and Morlet wavelet analysis,to comprehensively analyze the data.[Results]The results indicate that precipitation increases in the Yangtze River Basin(6.12 mm/10 a),while decreasing in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin(with reductions of-14.64 mm/10 a,-3.97 mm/10 a,and-6.47 mm/10 a).Multiple types of time-scale main cycles of precipitation and rainy days exist.Regarding rainfall intensity,heavy rainfall and storm increase in the Yangtze River Basin(1.03 mm/10 a,7 mm/10 a),whereas the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins experience a decrease in light,moderate,and heavy rainfall.Nearly 90％of stations in each basin exhibit a decreasing trend in various types of rainy days,with spatial correlation coefficients of rainfall intensity and corresponding rainy days mostly exceeding 0.88.The interannual variation of mean and maximum(lowest)temperatures in the basin demonstrates a significant upward trend,correlating with rainfall intensity in each basin.[Conclusion]The results reveal that,(1)annual precipitation in each basin,alternating between abundance and depletion,exhibits an increasing trend in the Yangtze River Basin,while Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins experience decreases.The number of rainy days across the entire basin significantly decreases,with similar main cycles observed in rainfall intensity and rainy days.(2)Rainfall intensity and rainy days trends in each basin are consistent,with a high spatial correlation between them.Extreme precipitation events worsen due to increased heavy and storm rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,while decreases in light and moderate rainfall in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins lead to frequent drought events.(3)Warming affects rainfall intensity differently in each basin,primarily resulting in increased heavy rainfall in the Yangtze River basin and accelerating the decline of light rainfall in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins,exacerbating flooding in the south and drought in the north.Changes in atmospheric circulation factors,including AMO,EASMI,SCSSI,SASMI,and Nino3.4,also influence extreme precipitation within the basin and drought events in North China by impacting atmospheric circulation,particularly monsoon intensity in East Asia,South Asia,and the South China Sea.关键词
降水/雨强/雨日/气候变化/温度/长江流域/黄淮海流域Key words
precipitation/rainfall intensity/rainy days/climate change/temperature/Yangtze River Basin/Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
邓皓东,徐宝同,王庆明,赵勇,桂云鹏..长黄淮海流域雨强变化特征及气象因子影响分析[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(2):71-88,18.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200204) （2021YFC3200204）
基本科研业务费专项项目(HTWR0145B05202100000) （HTWR0145B05202100000）
