水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(2)：89-103,15.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.02.007
基于CMIP6气候情景的泾河流域水文模拟及预测
Hydrological simulation and prediction of the Jinghe River Basin based on CMIP6 climate scenario
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose]The land use change caused by climate change and human activities brings challenges to water resources regulation and management,which makes it a current research need to explore the hydrological simulation process under the influence of both and make quantitative prediction and analysis.[Methods]Based on three climate models of CMIP6,namely ACCESS-CM2,BCC-CSM2-MR,and NorESM2-LM,two concentration scenarios SSP245 and SSP585 were used to simulate the precipitation,minimum temperature,and maximum temperature of the Jinghe River Basin in the future period(2022-2044)after deviation correction;Based on the land use data of the watershed in 2005 and 2015,the CA-Markov model is used to predict the spatial distribution of land use in the watershed in 2025.Combined with climate model data,the SWAT distributed hydrological model is driven to predict future runoff changes in the Jinghe River Basin and analyze the impact of two factors on the rate of runoff change.[Results]The research result indicate that:(1)In the future period(2022-2044),under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,the annual average precipitation will increase by 0.3％and 1.41％compared to the reference period(2006-2012),with the lowest temperature increasing by 0.9 ℃ and 1.11 ℃,and the highest temperature increasing by 0.28 ℃ and 0.07 ℃,respectively.(2)In 2025,the area of construction land and arable land increased by 34.97％and 3.15％respectively compared to 2005,while the area of grassland and forest land decreased by 4.30％and 1.59％.(3)The R2 and NSE values of the simulated and measured runoff values during the reference period and validation period are 0.86 and 0.7,0.76 and 0.71,respectively,with R2 greater than 0.7 and NSE greater than 0.65.(4)The simulated annual average runoff values for the four scenarios(S45_LUC05,S85_LUC05,S45_LUC25,S85_LUC25)are 387 m3/s,387.87 m3/s,419.17 m3/s,and 422.94m3/s,respectively.[Conclusion](1)In the future(2022-2044),the average annual precipitation and temperature in the Jinghe River Basin will show an overall upward trend.(2)In the future period(2025),the construction land area of the Jinghe River Basin will significantly increase,while the grassland and forest area will show a decreasing trend.(3)The SWAT model has good applicability in hydrological simulation of the Jinghe River Basin.(4)Under the four scenarios,future runoff will show an upward trend,Climate and land use change jointly affect runoff change,and the impact of land use change on runoff is greater than that of climate factors.关键词
CMIP6/SWAT模型/土地利用/径流模拟/泾河流域/气候变化/降水Key words
CMIP6/SWAT model/land use/runoff simulation/Jinghe River Basin/climate change/precipitation分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
龙鸿元,王丽霞,张珈玮,刘招,杨耘..基于CMIP6气候情景的泾河流域水文模拟及预测[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(2):89-103,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41471452) （41471452）
陕西省自然科学基金项目(2021JM-161,2020ZDLSF06-07) （2021JM-161,2020ZDLSF06-07）
中央高校基本科研业务资助项目(300102269201,300102299206) （300102269201,300102299206）
