管理学刊2025，Vol.38Issue(1)：48-62,15.DOI:10.19808/j.cnki.41-1408/F.2025.0004
社会流动对生育意愿的影响机制:消费升级的中介效应考察
Mechanism of Social Mobility on Fertility Intention:An Examination of the Mediating Effect of Consumption Upgrading
摘要
Abstract
Chinese fertility intentions have been sustained at a low level.This paper constructs a model of social mobility affecting fertility intention from the perspectives of consumption's upgrading effect and the ratchet effect to provide a theoretical explanation for low fertility intention.On this basis,the impact of social mobility on fertility intention is empirically examined from the dual perspectives of intergenerational and intragenerational social mobility using the Poisson and Mediation model,based on data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2010 and 2018.The study found that social mobility significantly affects the number of children desired by the offspring,with the intergenerational upward mobility and intragenerational upward mobility groups having fewer desired children.Using per capita household consumption expenditure to measure consumption upgrading,the number of desired children is lower for the group experiencing social mobility(downward or upward)regardless of intergenerational or intragenerational social mobility.Using survivable consumption expenditure to measure consumption upgrading,the number of desired children is lower for the group experiencing intragenerational upward social mobility.Using developmental consumption to measure consumption upgrading,the number of desired children is lower for the group experiencing intragenerational social mobility(downward or upward).When intergenerational upward mobility occurred in the 16-49 age group,their fertility intention decreased significantly.When intragenerational upward mobility occurred in the population aged over 49,those with less than bachelor's degree and those in rural areas,their fertility intention decreased significantly.Therefore,it is proposed that China should create a fertility-friendly society to increase fertility intention as much as possible.关键词
社会流动/生育意愿/消费升级效应/消费棘轮效应Key words
social mobility/fertility intention/consumption upgrading effect/consumption ratchet effect分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
贾洪波,农静雅..社会流动对生育意愿的影响机制:消费升级的中介效应考察[J].管理学刊,2025,38(1):48-62,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074016) （72074016）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD077) （20&ZD077）
