运筹与管理2024，Vol.33Issue(12)：38-45,8.DOI:10.12005/orms.2024.0384
风险偏好和过度自信影响下应急医疗物资供应链动力学研究
Research on Dynamic Model of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chain under Risk Preference and Overconfidence
摘要
Abstract
The public health emergencies do great harm to residents'life safety and economic development.Emergency medical materials provide important guarantees for the epidemic control and reduction of disaster losses.The establishment of an efficient emergency medical material supply chain under public health emergen-cies can quickly increase medical resources from shortage to dynamic balance,which has become a practical problem to be solved by all sectors in society.However,emergency decision-makers may have overconfidence and risk preference,which will affect the effectiveness of emergency response.Due to the characteristics of public health emergencies,by the traditional supply chain it is difficult to solve the allocation of medical materi-als under emergencies.Meanwhile,the real-time change in the number of infected people is a factor that must be considered in the material allocation action.Few scholars have comprehensively analyzed the dynamic constraints of various factors in the supply chain of emergency medical materials under the epidemic considering the risk preference and overconfidence of decision makers. Based on the dynamic perspective,this paper expands the SEIR infection mechanism on the premise of considering the real-time impact of COVID-19 on the number of infected people.Then the causal relationship between the epidemic control and medical material supply is explored by combining social factors such as national policies,with the epidemic response level and behavioral change.In addition,according to the complexity of decision-makers'behavior,we integrate the risk preference and overconfidence of emergency decision-makers in government departments into the decision-making process of material allocation with a quantitative method.Meanwhile,a system dynamics(SD)model affected by two behavioral factors under public health emergencies has been constructed.Finally,combined with the case of epidemic prevention in Wuhan,China,we explore the impact of risk preference,overconfidence,intensity of mobilization policy,ability of material scheduling on supply chain performance,which aims to find the optimal strategies to improve the operation efficiency of the emergency supply chain. The results show that,with a reduction in decision-makers'risk preference,the collection rate of medical materials does not change significantly in the early and middle stages of the epidemic,but increases gradually in the late stage of the epidemic.In the long run,high-risk preference is likely to lead to an insufficient demand satisfaction rate,and a moderately pessimistic attitude of the emergency decision-makers is beneficial to the work of the epidemic control.The impact of the over-precision factor on the emergency supply chain is not significant,and the demand satisfaction rate is not sensitive to the over-precision factor.In the short term,the operational efficiency of the emergency medical material supply chain is not very sensitive to the overestimation factor,intensity of mobilization policy and ability of material scheduling.In the late stage of epidemic prevention,the demand satisfaction rate of victims is negatively correlated with the overestimation factor.But it is positively correlated to the intensity of mobilization policy and ability of material scheduling.Therefore,in the long run,enhancing the intensity of mobilization policy and ability of material scheduling will contribute to improving the efficiency of the supply chain.In addition,the decision-makers'risk preference will also restrict the impact of other variables on the operational efficiency of the emergency supply chain. This paper is an innovative step to establish a dynamic correlation among dual behavioral factors,the epidemic prevention and emergency materials allocation,which is helpful to optimize the supply chain model affected by the traditional single behavioral factor.This paper also provides theoretical reference and decision support for promoting the emergency management system.关键词
风险偏好/过度自信/应急医疗物资/疫情防控/系统动力学Key words
risk preference/overconfidence/emergency medical materials/epidemic control/system dynamics分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
史文强,何捷,汪明月..风险偏好和过度自信影响下应急医疗物资供应链动力学研究[J].运筹与管理,2024,33(12):38-45,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72204247,72261017) （72204247,72261017）
江西省社会科学基金项目(22GL41) （22GL41）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC630116) （21YJC630116）
江西省自然科学基金项目(20242BAB20013) （20242BAB20013）
