运筹与管理2024，Vol.33Issue(12)：180-186,7.DOI:10.12005/orms.2024.0403
基于信息熵的系统脆性风险传递模型及应用
Brittle Risk Transmission Model of System and Application Based on Information Entropy
摘要
Abstract
The epidemic situation of novel coronavirus pneumonia rapidly evolved into a global public health crisis after it was first found in December 2019 in Wuhan,Hubei Province.Novel coronavirus has the characteristics of strong infectivity,high severity,and is difficult to find independently.When the vaccine was not developed,the epidemic situation spread widely throughout the country,causing a serious impact on people's work and life.On January 30,2020,the World Health Organization announced that the novel coronavirus epidemic would be listed as a public health emergency of international concern.Public health emergencies refer to events that occur suddenly and cause a serious damage to public health.Public health emergencies of infectious diseases such as the COVID-19 not only reduce people's demand for face-to-face services such as transportation and catering,but also affect the supply chain through transportation delays and supplier downtime.Therefore,how to make effective emergency decisions in complex situations where time is tight and resources are limited is the key to maintaining social system stability. Brittleness,as a property of complex systems exhibiting a tendency to collapse when subjected to sudden external shocks and their chain reactions,can well match the characteristics of sudden public health emergencies and their diffusion in the environment with those of brittle risk diffusion in the system.This article transforms the problem of infectious disease transmission between regions into that of fragile risk transmission between subsys-tems.With information entropy to characterize uncertainty combined with the ranking entropy method to allocate weights,the brittleness risk level of subsystems,i.e.brittleness,is obtained to identify key subsystems.With information entropy to improve the measurement and coefficients of connectivity in analytical theory,brittle connectivity is obtained to characterize the uncertain connections between subsystems and identify the key pathways for brittle risk transmission.Further we define the brittleness tolerance to identify weak subsystems and construct a complex system brittleness risk transmission model. The model is applied to the spread of COVID-19 among provinces and cities in China.We select 10 fragile factor indicators to calculate the weights of subsystems in each province,including the accumulated number of confirmed cases,cured cases and deaths,and the number of beds,health technicians and medical institutions,and population migration,population density,transportation density and per capita disposable income.The subsystem fragility is calculated by taking the proportion of cumulative confirmed cases to the permanent popula-tion and the proportion of cumulative cured/deceased cases to the confirmed cases as approximate probabilities,and the probabilities of other fragility factors as approximate probabilities based on their proportion to the total data of the factor.We calculate the positivity coefficient by collecting population density,transportation density,and per capita disposable income(from provincial statistical bureaus).We also calculate the negative coefficient based on the dilution capacity of the receiver subsystem,which is the negative ratio of the input healthy popula-tion:the total number of incoming population(approximately equivalent to the total number of personnel move-ments in each province in the 1%sampling survey of population in 2015)minus the number of confirmed cases to the total population of the incoming province.We collect data such as the number of cases of COVID-19 from January 19 to February 29,2020,and the track of action(from the official websites of health regulatory authori-ties at all levels),and calculate the fragility contact degree and fragility tolerance.The ranking results of brittle-ness are consistent with the official risk level classification list,and those of brittleness correlation and brittleness tolerance are consistent with common sense,which verifies the effectiveness of the model.This result helps analyze which provinces require key assistance and which personnel and material exchanges between provinces need to be closely monitored,thus assisting managers in making effective emergency decisions.关键词
脆性/信息熵/新冠肺炎/突发公共卫生事件Key words
brittleness/information entropy/COVID-19/public health emergency分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
许春梅,孙秉珍..基于信息熵的系统脆性风险传递模型及应用[J].运筹与管理,2024,33(12):180-186,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72071152) （72071152）
陕西省杰出青年科学基金项目(2023-JC-JQ-11) （2023-JC-JQ-11）
温州市基础性科研项目(R20220010) （R20220010）
