中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）2025，Vol.64Issue(2)：12-21,10.DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240260
基于线性矩的粤港澳大湾区极端降水区域频率分析
Linear moments-based regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
摘要
Abstract
Based on the annual maximum daily precipitation data collected from 30 meteorological observation stations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 1961 and 2023,the optimal distribution function and recurrence design level of extreme precipitation frequency in each sub-region of the Greater Bay Area were analyzed by using the regional linear moment method.The findings are summarized as follows:1)The meteorological stations in the Greater Bay Area are divided into five sub-regions by KNN classification and homogeneity criterion.These sub-regions are:Region Ⅰ,located in the middle and lower reaches of the Xijiang River;Region Ⅱ,located in the Delta network River Area in the central and northern part of the Greater Bay Area;Region Ⅲ,located on both sides of the Lingdingyang Estuary Area in the southern part of the Greater Bay Area;Region Ⅳ,located in the southwestern part of the Greater Bay Area;and Region V,located in the eastern part of the Greater Bay Area.2)The optimal distribution functions of the 1st to 5th sub-regions are P-Ⅲ,GEV,GEV,P-Ⅲ,and GEV,respectively.Consequently,the rainstorm frequency design values of each station in the Greater Bay Area are calculated using the regional rainstorm growth curve method.3)The rainstorm recurrence level determined by the optimal distribution functions for the five sub-regions can serve as a reference for engineering design in sub-regions that lack specific site data.关键词
L-矩/区域极端降水/频率分析/KNN分类/区域最优分布函数Key words
L-moment/regional extreme precipitation/frequency analysis/KNN classification/regional optimal distribution functions分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
杨芳,马志鹏,陈子燊..基于线性矩的粤港澳大湾区极端降水区域频率分析[J].中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）,2025,64(2):12-21,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3001000) （2021YFC3001000）
水利青年人才发展资助项目 （）
国家自然科学基金(41371498) （41371498）
