中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）2025，Vol.64Issue(2)：42-55,14.DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240167
伊犁河流域植被覆盖时空变化趋势及驱动力
The spatiotemporal change trends and driving forces of vegetation coverage in the Ili River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Ili River Basin is one of the best-preserved arid and semi-arid ecological landscapes in Central Asia,its vegetation coverage affects the regional ecological balance and climate change.Based on the MODIS NDVI dataset and the binary pixel model,the Hurst index and BFAST model are used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and persistence of the Fractional Vegetation Cover(FVC)in the Ili River Basin from 2001 to 2022.The results are as follows:1)Over the past 22 years,the vegetation coverage in the Ili River Basin has generally shown a fluctuating upward trend.The average vegetation coverage from 2001 to 2022 was 0.18,with low vegetation coverage being the main feature.The distribution of vegetation has significant spatial variability,with the vegetation coverage in the upstream and midstream areas being significantly higher than that in the downstream areas.2)The BFAST model analysis shows that the increase and degradation of vegetation coverage in the Ili River Basin accounted for 47.3%and 52.7%respectively.The trend of vegetation degradation is slightly higher than that of vegetation growth.The Hurst index indicates that the future vegetation increasing trend accounts for 62.42%while the decreasing trend accounts for 16.84%.The superposition of 17 results from the BFAST model and Hurst index analysis shows that the future trend of vegetation coverage has an increasing trend of 65.22%,which is much greater than the decreasing trend(15.07%)and the unpredictable areas of 19.71%.Overall,the future vegetation shows an increasing trend.3)Geodetector-based analyses show that precipitation,and temperature have the greatest influence on vegetation cover in the whole basin.For each sub-region,the topography of the upper reaches is dominated by river valleys,and the main influencing factor is altitude;while in the middle reaches,temperature and GDP are two dominant factors;in the lower reaches,temperature and precipitation are dominant.The results of this paper provide scientific and technical support for the ecological balance of the Ili River Basin and future trends in vegetation change.关键词
植被覆盖/像元二分模型/Hurst指数/BFAST模型/伊犁河流域Key words
vegetation coverage/pixel bisection model/Hurst index/BFAST model/Ili River Basin分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
金晓亮,孙慧兰,叶茂,苏骅,杨涵,吴芳..伊犁河流域植被覆盖时空变化趋势及驱动力[J].中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）,2025,64(2):42-55,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41761004) （41761004）
第三次新疆综合科学考察专题(2021xjkk0406) （2021xjkk0406）
新疆师范大学青年拔尖人才项目(XJNUQB2023-11) （XJNUQB2023-11）
