中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）2025，Vol.64Issue(2)：148-159,12.DOI:10.13471/j.cnki.acta.snus.ZR20240093
一类具有疫苗接种且潜伏期传染的SVEIAR腮腺炎传染病模型
An SVEIAR mumps infection model with vaccination and latent infection
摘要
Abstract
According to the known mechanism of mumps transmission,a SVEIAR mumps infectious disease model with vaccination and incubation period was established by using the qualitative and sta-bility theory of ordinary differential equation,and the basic regeneration number of the model was ob-tained.The existence of the equilibrium points is given and it is found that the disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when R0≤1;the disease-free equilibrium point is unstable and the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when R0>1.The case data of mumps patients in Jiangsu Province is collected to simulate the epidemic trend of mumps in the next few years.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of parameters shows that the incidence of mumps will continue to in-crease in recent years.Improving public awareness preventing mumps,developing effective vaccina-tion strategies and strengthening physical exercise can improve the body quality and immune function,so as to prevent the occurrence of mumps,and then control the spread of mumps.关键词
SVEIAR模型/基本再生数/稳定性/数值模拟Key words
SVEIAR model/basic reproduction number/stability/numerical simulation分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
蒋为平,张太雷,刘宗萱,曹欢..一类具有疫苗接种且潜伏期传染的SVEIAR腮腺炎传染病模型[J].中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）,2025,64(2):148-159,12.基金项目
陕西省自然科学基金(2022JM-023) （2022JM-023）
