摘要
Abstract
Objective To identify risk factors of progressive pulmonary fibrosis(PPF)development in patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome-associated interstitial lung disease(pSS-ILD),and to develop and validate a clinically applicable nomogram prediction model.Methods Enrolled 168 pSS-ILD patients from Three Gorges Hospital affiliated to Chongqing University from January 2019 to January 2023,randomly allo-cated into training(n=117)and internal validation(n=51)cohorts at 7∶3 ratio.The training cohort was stratified into the PPF group(n=38)and the non-PPF group(n=79)based on one-year radiographic pro-gression.An external validation cohort(n=24)was prospectively enrolled from February 2023 to April 2024.Multivariable analyses incorporated demographic characteristics,clinical manifestations,laboratory parame-ters,pulmonary function tests,and high-resolution CT(HRCT)imaging features.A nomogram was developed using independent predictors identified through logistic regression.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,area under curve(AUC),calibration curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow test and decision curve were used to e-valuate the prediction efficiency of the model.Results PPF developed in 31.0%(52/168)of patients within one year.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,25 hydroxyvitamin D level and high resolution CT fibrosis score were independent risk factors for PPF phenotype in pSS-ILD patients(P＜0.05).Based on the above predictors,a column-line diagram was constructed.Internal verification showed that the column-line differentiation ability was good(AUC=0.88,95%CI:0.79-0.98),and exter-nal verification showed that the predicted probability of the calibration curve was close to the actual probabili-ty(HL test χ2=9.516,P=0.301),indicating that the model had good consistency.Conclusion Age,serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D level and high resolution CT fibrosis score are independent risk factors for PPF phenotype in pSS-ILD patients.The nomogram model constructed according to the above three predictors has good differentiation and consistency,and could provide a reference for the clinical prediction of PPF in pSS-ILD patients.关键词
原发性干燥综合征/间质性肺疾病/进展性肺纤维化/危险因素/列线图Key words
primary Sjögren's syndrome/interstitial lung disease/progressive pulmonary fibrosis/risk factors/nomogram分类
医药卫生
