铁道科学与工程学报2025，Vol.22Issue(3)：1315-1327,13.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20240886
基于DEMATEL-ISM-BN的重大建设工程技术创新成果转化风险预警模型
Risk early warning model of technological innovation achievements transformation in major construction projects based on DEMATEL-ISM-BN
摘要
Abstract
To effectively prevent and mitigate the risks associated with the transformation of major construction engineering technological innovation achievements,and to promote the conversion of these innovation achievements into actual productivity,this study systematically analyzed the risk factors using the DEMATEL-ISM-BN system and developed a risk warning model.First,this article utilized grounded theory,following the process of"open coding—axial coding—selective coding"to identify 21 risk factors and summarize them into technical risk,management risk,resource risk and benefit risk.Then,employing the DEMATEL method,this article assessed the attributes,importance,and interrelationships of these risk factors.Using Interpretive Structural Modeling,this article constructed a 6-level,3-tier directed adjacency model to elucidate the interaction pathways among the risk factors.Next,this article converted the ISM model into a Bayesian Network topology.This article calculated the prior probabilities of root nodes using triangular fuzzy numbers and the DUOWA operator,and established the conditional probability table using the Noisy-or gate model.Bayesian network causal reasoning was then applied to predict the likelihood of risk occurrence,and features such as reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis,and maximum causality chain analysis were used for real-time diagnosis of risk event causes.Finally,this article selected a typical case to simulate and analyze the risk warning model.The simulation results demonstrated that the constructed risk early warning model for the transformation of major construction engineering technological innovations is highly applicable.The self-expanding energy-absorbing and wave-absorbing rockburst-resistant support technology has not yet met the test section standards,with incomplete organizational networks for transformation and inadequate intellectual property mechanisms identified as key risk factors leading to this risk event.The findings elevate the research on the risks of transforming major construction engineering technological innovations to a new height,and provide reference and guidance for risk management in related fields.关键词
重大建设工程/技术创新/成果转化/风险预警/DEMATEL-ISM-BN/仿真分析Key words
major construction projects/technological innovation/achievement transformation/risk early warning/DEMATEL-ISM-BN/simulation analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王青娥,荆浩飞,郭珍旭,王朝静..基于DEMATEL-ISM-BN的重大建设工程技术创新成果转化风险预警模型[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2025,22(3):1315-1327,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171237) （72171237）
国家自然科学基金专项资助项目(71942006) （71942006）
