东北电力技术2025，Vol.46Issue(4)：35-38,43,5.
地区分布式光伏发电量日前预测方法探究
Exploration of Methods for Day-Ahead Forecasting of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation at the Regional Level
刘诗 1王宇飞 1李宇龙1
作者信息
- 1. 国网吉林供电公司,吉林 吉林 132011
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To explore practical methods for forecasting regional distributed photovoltaic(PV)power generation and to improve the ac-curacy of such predictions,it proposes a day-ahead forecasting method that combines numerical weather prediction and historical statis-tical models.Firstly,it utilizes robotic process automation(RPA)technology and meteorological service platforms to automatically ac-quire photovoltaic generation data and weather forecast information.Then by analyzing the relationship between historical generation data and weather factors in various counties,it establishes a forecasting model.The model takes into account key influencing factors such as radiation temperature,humidity,and wind speed,and is developed and validated using regression analysis methods.Final-ly,the results show that this method can enhance the accuracy and reliability of predictions,with improvements compared to tradition-al methods.The automated data collection and processing procedures not only increase work efficiency but also reduce the possibility of human errors.The method has practical value to optimize the power generation plan and improves the utilization rate of renewable energy.关键词
分布式光伏发电/日前预测/RPA/数值天气预报Key words
distributed photovoltaic power generation/day-ahead forecasting/RPA/numerical weather prediction分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
刘诗,王宇飞,李宇龙..地区分布式光伏发电量日前预测方法探究[J].东北电力技术,2025,46(4):35-38,43,5.
