铁道科学与工程学报2025，Vol.22Issue(3)：1016-1028,13.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20240904
建成环境对城轨车站设计客流的非线性影响研究
Nonlinear effect of built environment on station design ridership in urban rail transit
摘要
Abstract
Station design ridership serves as a key parameter for rationally determining the station scale.Understanding its influencing factors and mechanism is crucial for improving the credibility of passenger flow prediction and the quality of station planning and design.However,existing studies usually neglect the non-coincidence of peak hours between the station and the whole line.It is obviously biased to take station passenger flow during the line's peak hour as station design passenger flow.Hence,this study took the station passenger flow during its own peak hour as the station design ridership,and explored nonlinear impact of the built environment on the station design ridership using Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree model(XGBoost)and Partial Dependence Plot(PDP).The difference between the influence of station ridership during line's peak hour and station's peak hour was analyzed to deduce the influencing factors of peak deviation.The results show that the most important factor influencing station design ridership is land use(35%),followed by accessibility(31%),network structure(19%),and station type(14%).The influencing mechanism of station design ridership varies with peak periods.The number of bus routes and distance from city center have high and robust influence and threshold effects in all time periods,with the former's positive effect reaching its maximum at 45 routes and the latter's negative effective range being 10～15 km.The nonlinear effect of road density differs by the time period.It has a negative effective range of 2～2.5 km/km2 during morning boarding and evening alighting ridership peak,and a positive effectiveness of 4～5.2 km/km2 during morning alighting and evening boarding ridership peak.There are both similarities and significant differences in the influencing factors of station passenger flow during two types of peaks.The number of bus routes,distance from city center,and proportion of transportation hub land are the main factors associated with peak deviation.The influencing factors of peak deviation during evening alighting peak are particularly complex,which may be related to more flexible travel time and more diversified travel purposes of the after-work residents.The results of the study can provide a basis for the calibration of passenger flow forecasting models,the calculation of station facilities scale and the planning of land use around stations.关键词
城市轨道交通/车站设计客流/高峰偏差/车站自身高峰/土地利用Key words
urban rail transit/station design ridership/peak deviation/station's own peak/land use分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
魏杰,李海军,吕斌,陈宽民..建成环境对城轨车站设计客流的非线性影响研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2025,22(3):1016-1028,13.基金项目
甘肃省青年科技基金资助项目(24JRRA264) （24JRRA264）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52362044) （52362044）
国家铁路集团科技研究开发计划资助项目(P2022S016) （P2022S016）
