南方医科大学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(3)：514-521,8.DOI:10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2025.03.09
溃疡性结肠炎并发坏疽性脓皮病患者发生营养风险的因素及预测模型
Risk factors for malnutrition in ulcerative colitis complicated with pyoderma gangrenosum and construction of a lasso regression-based prediction model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the risk factors for malnutrition in patients with ulcerative colitis complicated with pyoderma gangrenosum and establish a nutritional risk prediction model for these patients.Methods A total of 277 patients with ulcerative colitis complicated with pyoderma gangrenosum treated from 2019 to 2024 were divided into malnutrition group(n=185)and normal nutrition group(n=92)according to whether malnutrition occurred.The data of 25 potential related factors pertaining to general demography,living and eating habits,and disease-related data were compared between the two groups.Lasso regression was used to screen the risk factors,and a nomogram model was established based on the screened factors and its prediction performance was assessed.Results The patients in the malnutrition group and normal nutrition group showed significant differences in 21 factors including gender,age,education level,BMI,place of residence,course of disease,and SAS language score(P<0.05).Lasso regression analysis identified 6 factors associated with malnutrition in these patients,namely the duration of ulcerative colitis,activity of ulcerative colitis,duration of pyoderma gangrenosum,number of chronic diseases,SAS score,and sleep quality.The nomogram prediction model established based on these 6 factors had an AUC of 0.992(95%CI:0.984-1.000)for predicting malnutrition in these patients,and its application in 14 clinical cases achieved an accuracy rate of 100%.Conclusion The duration of ulcerative colitis,activity of colitis,duration of pyoderma gangrenosum,number of chronic diseases,anxiety,and sleep quality are closely related with malnutrition in patients with ulcerative colitis complicated by pyoderma gangrenosum,and the nomogram prediction model based on these factors can provide assistance for predicting malnutrition in these patients.关键词
溃疡性结肠炎/坏疽性脓皮病/营养风险/预测模型Key words
ulcerative colitis/pyoderma gangrenosum/nutritional risk/prediction model引用本文复制引用
申琳,宋翠豪,王聪敏,高西,安俊红,李承新,梁斌,李霞..溃疡性结肠炎并发坏疽性脓皮病患者发生营养风险的因素及预测模型[J].南方医科大学学报,2025,45(3):514-521,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82273530) Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(82273530). （82273530）
