郑州大学学报（医学版）2025，Vol.60Issue(2)：270-273,4.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2024.09.029
创伤性脑损伤合并脓毒血症患者30d内死亡风险预测模型的构建和评价
Construction and evaluation of 30-day death risk prediction model in pa-tients with traumatic brain injury complicated with sepsis
摘要
Abstract
Aim:To construct a 30-day death risk prediction model in patients with traumatic brain injury complicated with sepsis.Methods:This study retrospectively analyzed 344 patients with traumatic brain injury complicated with sepsis admitted to the Neurological ICU of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2021 to June 2024.According to the 30-day survival after admission,the patients were divided into death group and survival group.Logistic re-gression and Bootstrap 1 000 sampling method were used to construct 30-day death risk prediction model,and plot a Nomo-gram model.ROC analysis,calibration curve,and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive power,calibration pow-er,and clinical net benefit of the Nomogram model.Results:Among the 344 patients,116 died within 30 days.CRP,A-PACHE Ⅱ score,red blood cell distribution width to platelet ratio(RPR)and strain types were the predictive factors for 30-day death in patients with traumatic brain injury combined with sepsis[OR(95％CI)were 1.004(1.001-1.006),1.158(1.112-1.207),3.328(1.402-3.895),2.071(1.207-3.552),respectively].The AUC(95％CI)of 30-day death of the Nomogram model were 0.803(0.752-0.854).The calibration curve showed that the predicted curve of the model was basically consistent with the ideal curve.The decision curve showed that the model had a good clinical net benefit.Conclu-sion:CRP,APACHE Ⅱ score,RPR and strain types are predictive factors for 30-day death in patients with traumatic brain injury complicated with sepsis.The risk prediction model based on these factors has good predictive performance.关键词
创伤性脑损伤/脓毒血症/死亡风险预测Key words
traumatic brain injury/sepsis/death risk prediction分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
牛瑞娜,尚小平,赵亚楠,邵慧杰,李东瑞..创伤性脑损伤合并脓毒血症患者30d内死亡风险预测模型的构建和评价[J].郑州大学学报（医学版）,2025,60(2):270-273,4.基金项目
河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(LHGJ20200267) （LHGJ20200267）
