青岛大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.38Issue(1)：79-85,93,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1037.2025.01.12
需求不确定条件下的LNG供应链规划研究
Research on LNG Supply Chain Planning under Demand Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
To minimize operational costs in the Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG)supply chain,the operational processes of LNG receiving stations were analyzed,and a multi-stage stochastic planning model was created.LNG flow,terminal storage capacity,and customer demand constraints were integrated into the model.The scenario tree was con-structed to depict the decision stages and address demand uncertainty.The research re-veals that when facing demand uncertainty,LNG receiving station companies must plan by considering multiple factors such as shipping distance,purchase price,customer appear-ance probability,and demand volume.Sensitivity analysis shows that reducing purchase costs can include all customers in the plan.When purchase costs rise,customers with low-er demand or appearance probabilities may be excluded from the plan.Changes in storage costs have a minor impact on operational costs.The constructed model demonstrates sig-nificant advantages in cost-effectiveness,adaptability,and flexibility.It is capable of pro-viding customized solutions based on varying demand scenarios.关键词
需求不确定性/液化天然气供应链/随机规划/场景树Key words
demand uncertainty/LNG supply chain/stochastic programming/scenario tree分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘岚旭,周建频..需求不确定条件下的LNG供应链规划研究[J].青岛大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,38(1):79-85,93,8.基金项目
福建省自然科学基金(批准号:2022J01321)资助. （批准号:2022J01321）
