人民长江2025，Vol.56Issue(3)：140-145,6.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2025.03.018
基于熵权的隧道涌水量组合预测方法
Combined predict method of tunnel water inflowbased on entropy weight
摘要
Abstract
Various analytical and empirical formulas and models have been developed for predicting tunnel water inflow;howev-er,discrepancies often exist between calculated results and actual measurements.To enhance accuracy of tunnel water inflow pre-diction,this study employs the entropy method to calculate weights and integrates these with the ordered weighted averaging meth-od for combined prediction of individual model outputs.Based on the actual monitoring data of Liebaituo Tunnel in Yunnan Prov-ince,five commonly used single prediction models and two combined prediction models were evaluated based on effectiveness and other performance indicators.The results demonstrated that the entropy-based combined prediction method achieved an average accuracy of 96.46％across five prediction segments,with an effectiveness value of 0.941 9.Compared with the most accurate sin-gle prediction model,this combined approach improved average accuracy by 18.17％and effectiveness by 24.6％.The combined prediction method can significantly improve prediction accuracy,provide support for formulating tunnel drainage scheme,and re-duce the disaster risk caused by tunnel water inflow.关键词
隧道涌水量/预测精度/解析公式法/熵值法/组合预测/有效度指标/云南省列白妥隧道Key words
tunnel water inflow/prediction accuracy/analytical formula method/entropy method/combined predict method/effectiveness metrics/Liebaituo Tunnel in Yunnan Province分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
李俊,黄晓敏,李睿,王亮,李泽..基于熵权的隧道涌水量组合预测方法[J].人民长江,2025,56(3):140-145,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(12162018) （12162018）
云南交投集团公路建设有限公司项目(QT00MM202310001) （QT00MM202310001）
