山东医药2025，Vol.65Issue(3)：69-73,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-266X.2025.03.014
急性胰腺炎患者发生全身炎症反应综合征的危险因素分析及预测列线图构建
Risk factors for SIRS in patients with acute pancreatitis and construction of a predictive nomogram
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the risk factors for the occurrence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome(SIRS)in patients with acute pancreatitis(AP)and to construct a prediction nomogram for SIRS in AP patients.Methods Totally 112 AP patients were divided into the non-SIRS group(92 cases)and SIRS group(20 cases)based on whether they developed SIRS.Data on gender,age,body mass index(BMI),comorbidities,smoking history,alcohol his-tory,past medical history,C-reactive protein,procalcitonin(PCT),serum amylase,serum lipase,D-dimer,prognostic nutritional index,and systemic immune-inflammation index(SII)were collected from patients of both groups.Statistical analysis was performed using univariate analysis to identify variables with significant differences;with SIRS occurrence in AP patients as the dependent variable and the identified variables as independent variables,a binary Logistic regression model was constructed to analyze the risk factors for SIRS in AP patients.The rms package in R software was used to estab-lish the nomogram prediction model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model,and a calibration curve was generated to assess the calibration of the nomogram.Results Compared with the SIRS group,the non-SIRS group had younger age,fewer cases of hyperlipid-emia,lower PCT levels,lower D-dimer levels,and lower SII(all P<0.05).Logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that advanced age,higher SII,higher PCT levels,and higher D-dimer levels were independent risk factors for SIRS in AP patients(all P<0.05).Based on these risk factors,a prediction nomogram for SIRS in AP patients was con-structed,with an area under the ROC curve of 0.832(95%CI:0.739-0.927),sensitivity of 80.0%,and specificity of 73.9%.Conclusions Advanced age,higher SII,higher PCT levels,and higher D-dimer levels are independent risk factors for SIRS in AP patients.The prediction nomogram constructed based on these risk factors has high predictive value for the occurrence of SIRS in AP patients.关键词
胰腺炎/急性胰腺炎/全身炎症反应综合征/预测列线图Key words
pancreatitis/acute pancreatitis/systemic inflammatory response syndrome/predictive nomogram分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
澹会芳,樊冰雨,王勇,高晓,郑研艳,樊智辉,冯军安,杨丽..急性胰腺炎患者发生全身炎症反应综合征的危险因素分析及预测列线图构建[J].山东医药,2025,65(3):69-73,5.基金项目
河南省科技攻关项目(242102310103) （242102310103）
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(25B110011). （25B110011）
