人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(4)：7-14,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.04.002
黄河流域农业绿色发展时空格局及影响因素研究
Study on the Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Green Development in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the influencing factors and spatial differences of the green development of agriculture(GDA)in the Yellow River Basin(YRB),and to provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for the high-quality development of agriculture in the YRB,an evaluation index system for the level of GDA was established,which included three dimensions of high efficiency of development,ecological friendliness and resources conservation.Based on the panel data of 68 prefecture-level cities in the YRB from 2011 to 2021,the global entropy method(GEM)was applied to assess the level of GDA in the YRB,and the Moran index was used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of its differentiation.On this basis,six indicators were set up in economic,social and natural aspects,including industrial structure,planting structure,industrialization level,urbanization level,topographic relief and annual precipitation,and a multi-scale geo-graphically weighted regression(MGWR)model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of the GDA in the YRB and its spa-tial differences.The results show that a)the level of GDA in the YRB shows an upward trend from 2011 to 2021,but the overall level at the end of the study period is still low,with the level of GDA in the lower reaches significantly higher than that in the middle and upper reaches,the development of efficient dimensions in the upper reaches and lower reaches showing a clear upward trend,and the ecologically friendly and resources-saving dimensions showing a smaller increase in the study period.b)There is an obvious positive spatial correlation between the level of GDA in the YRB,with a relatively large number of H-H agglomeration and L-L agglomeration prefecture-level cities.c)The spa-tial heterogeneity of the factors influencing the GDA is significant and the intensity of influence is different,among which the spatial differ-ences in the influence of industrial structure,planting structure,industrialization level and topographic relief are small and the spatial differ-ence in the influence of urbanization and annual precipitation is large.Industrial structure,industrialization level and topographic relief have negative effects,while planting structure,urbanization level and annual precipitation have positive effects.The intensity of influence is topo-graphic relief＞industrialization level＞urbanization level＞industrial structure＞planting structure＞annual precipitation.Some suggestions are put forward,such as changing the concept of agricultural development,strengthening regional cooperation and implementing differentiated agricultural green development strategies.关键词
农业绿色发展/时空格局/影响因素/多尺度地理加权回归模型/黄河流域Key words
agricultural green development/spatial-temporal pattern/influencing factor/MGWR/Yellow River Basin分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
周广亮,翟晓格,张绍阳..黄河流域农业绿色发展时空格局及影响因素研究[J].人民黄河,2025,47(4):7-14,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(23BJY249) （23BJY249）
河南省高校哲学社会科学创新团队项目(2024-CXTD-04) （2024-CXTD-04）
