人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(4)：84-91,99,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.04.014
基于水资源承载力的青岛市城镇化发展评价研究
Evaluation of Urbanization Development in Qingdao Based on Water Resources Carrying Capacity
摘要
Abstract
In order to calculate the maximum population scale and economic scale that the urban water resources in Qingdao City can sup-port,and to formulate the urban development model for urbanization and sustainable utilization of water resources,the entropy weight method was used to measure the water resources carrying capacity and urbanization level of Qingdao City from 2015 to 2022.A system dynamics mod-el was built from both water resources and social economy aspects,and the water supply and demand situations of four development models(natural development,rapid development,water conservation priority,and comprehensive development)from 2023 to 2030 were simulated.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of the urban area of Qingdao City shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2015 to 2022,and the urbanization level is steadily increased.The comprehensive development is the optimal mode of the urbanization development in Qingdao City,which can ensure that there is still a surplus water resources after meeting the needs of residents'life and economic devel-opment.关键词
水资源承载力/城镇化/系统动力学/可承载人口规模/可承载经济规模/青岛市Key words
water resources carrying capacity/urbanization/system dynamics/sustainable population scale/sustainable economic scale/Qingdao City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张立新,颜世强,邵志国..基于水资源承载力的青岛市城镇化发展评价研究[J].人民黄河,2025,47(4):84-91,99,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(72304161) （72304161）
