食管疾病2025，Vol.7Issue(1)：74-80,7.DOI:10.15926/j.cnki.issn2096-7381.2025.01.013
基于SEER数据的食管癌患者预后影响因素分析
Analysis of Prognostic Factors in Esophageal Cancer Patients Based on SEER Data
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the factors affecting the prognosis of esophagealcancer,establish a prognostic index equation model,and provide a scientific basis for the prognosis judgment of esophageal cancer.Methods A total of 20,419 esophagealcancer patients were selected from the SEER database as research subjects.The independent influencing factors of patient prognosis were analyzed using the Cox regression model,and a prognostic index equation model for esophagealcancer patients was established.The optimal cutoff value was determined based on the prognostic index,and risk stratification was performed.The survival outcomes of high-risk and low-risk groups were compared to assess the predictive efficacy of the model.Results This study included 20,419 esophagealcancer patients.Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age,gender,race,primary tumor site,histological type,grade,stage,T stage,lymph node metastasis,distant metastasis,surgery,radiotherapy,and chemotherapy were significantly associated with the prognosis of esophageal-cancer.Multivariate analysis indicated that age,gender,primary tumor site,histological type,grade,stage,T stage,distant metastasis,surgery,and chemotherapy were indepen-dent influencing factors of esophageal cancer prognosis.PI=0.097×age-0.119×gender+0.073×primary tumor site+0.094×histological type-0.189×grade+0.355×stage+0.1×T stage+0.264×distant metastasis-1.122×surgery-0.864×chemotherapy,with an optimal cutoff value of 1.The median survival time for the high-risk group was 2 months,while for the low-risk group it was 18 months,and the survival rate difference between the two groups was statistically significant.Conclusion Age,gender,primary tumor site,histological type,grade,stage,T stage,distant metastasis,surgery,and chemotherapy are independent factors affecting the prognosis of esophageal cancer.The prognostic index calculated based on the prognostic index equation model can better reflect the prognosis of esophageal cancer and provide a reference for individualized treatment and prognosis assessment in clinical practice.关键词
食管癌/影响因素/生存分析/预后指数模型Key words
esophageal cancer/influencing factors/survival analysis/prognostic index model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
澹会芳,樊冰雨,李田园,郑研艳,张亚丽,樊智辉,杨丽..基于SEER数据的食管癌患者预后影响因素分析[J].食管疾病,2025,7(1):74-80,7.基金项目
河南省科技攻关项目(242102310103)河南省高等学校重点科研项目(25B110011) （242102310103）
