摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyse the trends in the burden of liver cancer attributable to alcohol consumption and the effects of age,pe-riod,and cohort factors on it in China from 1990 to 2021,and to project the burden of disease from 2022 to 2030.Methods The data of the burden of liver cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in Chinese adult population during the period 1990-2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,and Joinpoint regression was used to analyse the turning points of the develop-ment trend,and calculate age-standardised incidence rates(ASIRs),age-standardised death rates(ASDRs),and their annual percentage changes(APCs),estimated APCs(EAPCs),and average APCs(AAPCs).Age,period,and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of liver cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in China were estimated by the age-period-cohort(APC)model.Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the burden of disease in 2022-2030.Results Between 1990 and 2021,the incidence and mortality burden of liver cancer due to alcohol consumption in China showed a significantly increasing trend.The number of incident cases increased from 7 500 to 20 500,the incidence rate increased from 0.64/105 to 1.44/105,the ASIR increased from 0.84/105 to 0.94/105(AAPC=0.36%,P<0.01),the number of deaths increased from 7 600 to 18 300,the mortality rate increased from 0.64/105 to 1.29/105,and the ASDR decreased from 0.87/105 to 0.85/105(AAPC=-0.02%,P=0.931).Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the ASIR and ASDR of males were significantly higher than those of females.The APC model showed that the risk of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer showed a trend of single-peak distribution that firstly rose and then declined with the age,an increasing trend with the development of pe-riod,and an overall decreasing trend with birth cohort progression.ARIMA projection analysis showed that the number of incident cases,deaths,incidence rate,and mortality rate of liver cancer would continue to increase from 2022 to 2030,while the ASIR and ASDR would tend to stabilise.Conclusions The burden of disease for liver cancer attributable to alcohol consumption in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2021,and the burden of disease was significantly heavier in men than in women.The risk of morbidity and mortality first increased and then decreased with age,increased with period,and tended to decrease with birth cohort development.The disease burden of liver cancer attributable to alcohol consumption will continue to be high in the future.关键词
肝癌/饮酒/疾病负担/全球疾病负担Key words
liver cancer/alcohol consumption/burden of disease/Global Burden of Disease
