统计与决策2025，Vol.41Issue(6)：126-131,6.DOI:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2025.06.022
"一带一路"视域下中国出口贸易潜力测度
Potential Measurement of China's Export Trade From the Perspective of the Belt and Road
摘要
Abstract
This paper utilizes the panel data from 2014 to 2022 to analyze the efficiency and potential of China's export trade with 134 countries along the Belt and Road through a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model,and then analyzes the multi-ple factors affecting China's export trade by using a one-step method.The study findings are as follows:The economic scale,pop-ulation scale and foreign trade dependence of trade partner countries and China's economic scale are positively correlated with China's export trade,while the geographical distance between the two countries and China's population scale have a negative im-pact on export trade.Becoming a member of WTO,signing free trade agreements and improving the government governance capac-ity of trade partners are the key factors to promote China's trade and export,while the lack of infrastructure construction is a re-stricting factor.China's foreign direct investment has no significant effect on export trade.In addition,China's trade efficiency with Singapore,South Korea,Chile and other countries is high;trade efficiency with Central Africa,Iraq,Libya and other countries is very low,and trade potential with the ASEAN region is huge.关键词
"一带一路"/贸易效率/贸易潜力/时变随机前沿引力模型Key words
the Belt and Road/trade efficiency/trade potential/time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
朱琴琴,邹娜,覃红.."一带一路"视域下中国出口贸易潜力测度[J].统计与决策,2025,41(6):126-131,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(12371261) （12371261）
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(23YJC910004) （23YJC910004）
