灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：170-177,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.02.026
极端天气冲击下的新型电力系统风险识别及应急策略研究
Research on Risk Identification and Emergency Strategies of New Power Systems under the Impact of Extreme Weather
摘要
Abstract
Using text mining techniques,the risk factors of the"source-grid-storage-load"components in the new power system under extreme weather impacts are revealed.Furthermore,combining the FAIR disaster analysis framework,Apriori association algorithm,and Bayesian network model,the disaster evolution paths of the new power system under extreme weather scenarios are simulated and key risk factors and emergency manage-ment measures are deduced.The research findings show that:①Under extreme weather impacts,the new power system exhibits characteristics of multiple risk elements,diverse disaster-bearing bodies,and high complexity in the interactions and transmission paths between various risk factors;②From the perspective of the complete"source-grid-storage-load"architecture,the critical risk nodes of the new power system are the power equipment in the grid end;③Timely implementation of emergency management measures can effectively reduce the risk of key equipment failures,and human intervention is crucial for enhancing power system safety and reliability.These findings contribute to capturing the disaster evolution characteristics of new power systems under extreme weather scenarios and advancing the construction of emergency management systems for new power systems.关键词
极端天气/新型电力系统/风险识别/文本挖掘/贝叶斯网络Key words
extreme weather/new power system/risk factor identification/text mining/Bayesian network分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
黎金玲,郑毅,吴祈,张良,郭海湘..极端天气冲击下的新型电力系统风险识别及应急策略研究[J].灾害学,2025,40(2):170-177,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"大数据驱动下自然资源生态安全预测预警预案研究"(72074198) （72074198）
湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目"复合链生灾害致灾机制与综合风险防控体系研究"(2024AFA015) （2024AFA015）
