灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：211-218,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.02.032
承灾体视角下的城市自然灾害风险演化情景模拟
Scenario Simulation of Urban Natural Hazard Risk Evolution under the Perspective of Elements at Risk:A Case Study of Changzhou Central Area
摘要
Abstract
Modern cities are densely filled with high-rise buildings,and various disaster bearing bodies are closely relat-ed,both of these lead to a significant increase in disaster consequences and intensified disaster risks.Taking the disaster bear-ing bodies in the disaster system as the research perspective,their temporal and spatial state changes and the transformation processes of elements are focused on.Based on theories such as complex networks and the dynamics of disaster spreading,a simulation model of disaster evolution scenarios is constructed.Due to its special geographical location,topography,and hydro-climatic conditions,Changzhou City in Jiangsu Province frequently suffers from flood disasters.Using the 2020 Chang-zhou land change survey data and the 2019 Changzhou building distribution data,a scenario simulation of rainstorm disaster risk evolution in Changzhou's central urban area is conducted.The results show that,during the disaster evolution process,efforts should be made to enhance the response capabilities of the disaster bearing bodies with light and medium vulnerability,while the disaster bearing bodies with high vulnerability should be emphasized to reduce their vulnerability.关键词
自然灾害/承灾体/情景模拟/风险评估/常州市/洪涝灾害Key words
natural hazards/disaster bearing bodies/scenario modeling/risk assessment/Changzhou City/flood disaster分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
颜玮祎,李飞雪,罗婷瑜..承灾体视角下的城市自然灾害风险演化情景模拟[J].灾害学,2025,40(2):211-218,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"顾及风险演化和人群响应动态过程的城市应急避难场所布局优化"(42471452) （42471452）
