灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：219-227,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.02.033
山区城镇雨洪灾害下的应急响应系统动态SD模拟研究
Dynamic SD Simulation Study of Emergency Response Systems in Mountainous Urban Areas under Rainstorm:A Case Study of Mentougou District,Beijing
摘要
Abstract
In the context of escalating global climate change and rapid urbanization,the inadequate spatial re-sponses to increasingly extreme and intricate flood risks present a significant challenge.However,existing emergency management systems often fail to respond effectively.Using the Mentougou District in Beijing as a case study and drawing on the'23·7'heavy rainfall event,System Dynamics(SD)modeling methods is employed to conduct dynamic simula-tion research on emergency responses by constructing a system model grounded in the interactive feedback among lifeline systems,emergency medical services,emergency supplies,and emergency shelter systems.The results demonstrate that the loss of lifeline systems in Mentougou exerts a significant impact on the entire emergency response system,partic-ularly in the realms of emergency medical services and emergency shelter systems.The capacity of emergency medical services in Mentougou is found to require enhancement.Additionally,the dissemination of information and governmental attention are shown to substantially influence the emergency supplies system,while disaster planning and management,the accessibility of shelter locations,and disaster education are identified as critical factors affecting the emergency shel-ter system.Based on these conclusions,targeted flood prevention and disaster mitigation recommendations are proposed for each subsystem of the emergency response in Mentougou,thereby providing a valuable reference for improving the emergency management capabilities of mountainous towns in the face of flood disasters.关键词
暴雨山洪/灾害反演/应急响应/系统动力学/情景模拟Key words
rainstorm floods/disaster inversion/emergency response/system dynamics/scenario simulation分类
土木建筑引用本文复制引用
宋钦滢,马东辉,夏陈红,王威..山区城镇雨洪灾害下的应急响应系统动态SD模拟研究[J].灾害学,2025,40(2):219-227,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"复合灾害情景下城市应急服务设施系统协同鲁棒优化与防灾韧性提升"(52278472) （52278472）
北京市自然科学基金项目"防灾韧性驱动的复合灾害适应性城市应急服务设施系统优化配置研究"(8232004) （8232004）
