中国大黄鱼价格波动特征研究OA

The yellow croaker is not only an important economic fish in the eastern coastal area of China,but also one of the advantageous export aquatic products in China.Rhubarb fish has high economic price and market demand,and the study of price fluctuation characteristics of rhubarb fish is of great significance for understanding the future price trend of rhubarb fish and avoiding the risk of price fluctuation.In this study,the monthly data of the reference price of sea surface purchase of two sizes of Ningde large yellow croaker,300-400g and 400-500g,were selected from 2015-2023,and the price fluctuation characteristics of large yellow croaker were investigated by utilizing the X12 seasonal adjustment method,HP filtering,and ARCH class model.The results of the study show that:(l)The reference price fluctuations for the purchase of large yellow croaker on the sea surface have obvious seasonal and cyclical characteristics;(2)Its price fluctuations are clustered and do not have the characteristics of high risk and high return;(3)The fluctuation of the reference price for the sea surface purchase of 300-400g size large yellow croaker exhibits symmetry of information shock,while the fluctuation of the reference price for the sea surface purchase of 400-500g size large yellow croaker exhibits asymmetry of information shock.Based on the above conclusions,suggestions are proposed to promote the further development of the yellow croaker industry by constructing a price monitoring and early warning system,building a full industry chain information platform and a cold chain logistics system.