农学学报2025，Vol.15Issue(3)：101-108,8.
云南省农业碳排放特征及驱动因素分析
Characteristics and Driving Factors Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Yunnan Province:Based on Expanded Kaya Identity and LMDI Decomposition Method
摘要
Abstract
Based on the classical IPCC carbon emission calculation theory,the agricultural carbon emissions were calculated in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2021,considering agricultural material input,soil nitrogen emissions,rice cultivation and livestock and poultry breeding.The influence factor decomposition was analyzed based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index.Results showed that:(1)the total agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province tended to increase from 2005 to 2021,showing a relatively obvious three-stage change characteristic of"fluctuating decrease-continuous increase-fluctuating decrease".The carbon emissions in 2021 increased by 22.38%compared to 2005,with an average annual growth rate of 1.27%.(2)In 2021,the source structure of agricultural carbon emissions ranked as livestock and poultry breeding,agricultural material input and crop farming,average accounting for 73.19%,14.42%and 12.39%respectively.(3)The LMDI decomposition results showed that agricultural production efficiency,agricultural economic development level and urbanization were emission growth factors,while agricultural industrial structure,employment structure and rural population were emission reduction factors.Therefore,it is recommended to firmly promote the rapid development of urbanization,optimize the agricultural industry structure and employment structure,develop standardized scale breeding of livestock and poultry,and promote the modernization of agriculture and rural development.关键词
农业碳排放/驱动因素/云南省/LMDI模型/区域差异/禽畜养殖/农业产业结构Key words
agricultural CO2 emission/driving factor/Yunnan Province/LMDI decomposition/regional differences/livestock and poultry breeding/agricultural industrial structure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张晓娇,毛昭庆,万思琦,董晓波..云南省农业碳排放特征及驱动因素分析[J].农学学报,2025,15(3):101-108,8.基金项目
云南省科技厅科技人才和平台计划——高层次科技人才及创新团队选拔专项"中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目"(202105AC160088) （202105AC160088）
2022年度省级低碳引导专项资金项目"云南省2020年农业温室气体清单"(YNJCZB2022112) （YNJCZB2022112）
云南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所所基金项目"'双碳'目标下云南省农业碳排放特征及其影响因素分析"(SJJ202202). （SJJ202202）
