灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：7-15,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.02.002
不同遭遇情景下沿海城市复合洪涝灾害耦合风险分析
Coupling Risk Analysis of Compound Flooding in Coastal Cities Under Different Encounter Scenarios:A Case Study in Shenzhen City,China
摘要
Abstract
Coastal cities are extremely vulnerable to the compound flooding caused by the combination of extreme high tide levels,river floods and heavy rainfall processes,and there are different combinations of multiple disaster fac-tors.Quantitative analysis of coupling risk of compound flooding under different encounter scenarios is helpful to under-stand and deal with compound flooding.Taking Shenzhen City as an example,according to the joint distribution of rain-fall and tide level based on Copula function,the recurrence period of compound flooding and the combination of disaster factors are analyzed,and the disaster risks under different combination of disaster factors are calculated based on the H-E-V-R coupling risk assessment framework of compound flooding.The results show that:①There is an amplification ef-fect of"1+1>2"in the co-occurrence recurrence period of compound flooding;②In the same recurrence period,the intensity of the disaster-causing factors of"rain-tide"is lower than that of rain and tide alone;③There are significant differences in the compound flooding risk under different combinations of disaster factors,and the risk of the combination of high rainfall and low tide in 50a is even higher than that of the combination of low rainfall and high tide in 100a.关键词
复合洪涝/沿海城市/遭遇情景/致灾因子组合/耦合风险Key words
compound flooding/coastal city/encounter scenarios/disaster factors combination/coupling risk分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
黄晶,钱雅如,刘珍珍,王慧敏..不同遭遇情景下沿海城市复合洪涝灾害耦合风险分析[J].灾害学,2025,40(2):7-15,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"大数据感知下'人群-场所'交互的城市洪涝灾害风险模拟与预警"(42171081) （42171081）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"面向联排联调的城市复合洪涝灾害风险Agent建模与智能决策"(42371092) （42371092）
