灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：52-60,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.02.008
极端气候对黄河流域上游地区社会脆弱性的冲击效应
Impact of Extreme Climate on Social Vulnerability in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
In order to study the impact of extreme climate on the economic and social systems in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin,based on comprehensive index methods,kernel density analysis,panel vector autoregression(PVAR),and other techniques,the temporal and spatial evolution of social vulnerability,its influencing factors,and the impact of extreme climate on it are examined.The results indicate that the social vulnerability index in the upper reaches of the Yellow River ranges from 0.395 to 3.589 and exhibits a bimodal spatially unbalanced distribution with significant spa-tial differences.From 2010 to 2022,social vulnerability in this region improved steadily,showing polarization,with areas of low social vulnerability demonstrating an increasing trend.The main factors affecting social vulnerability in the region in-clude the number of urban and rural residents insured by basic medical insurance,total water supply,population density,and wastewater discharge.Furthermore,the extreme climate index,wetness index,minimum daily temperature,drought index,and the number of cold days have significant effects on social vulnerability(P<0.05).Specifically,the ef-fects of the wetness index and very low daily minimum temperature on social vulnerability could last for 5 years,while the impacts of the drought index and cold day number could extend to as long as 8 years.关键词
黄河流域/社会脆弱性/极端气候/冲击效应Key words
Yellow River basin/social vulnerability/extreme climate/impact effect分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵连春,樊庆曦,杨柳..极端气候对黄河流域上游地区社会脆弱性的冲击效应[J].灾害学,2025,40(2):52-60,9.基金项目
甘肃省科技计划项目"新经济空间视角下甘肃省特色小镇演化、内生动力培育及对策"(23JRZA401) （23JRZA401）
甘肃省高等学校产业支撑计划项目"黄河流域甘肃段生态绩效评价及风险溢出监测预警研究"(2022CYZC-15) （2022CYZC-15）
