灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：71-76,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.02.011
黑龙江省1991-2020年CCDI时空变化特征及未来趋势分析
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and Future Trend Analysis of CCDI in Heilongjiang Province from 1991 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily minimum temperature data from 1991 to 2020 in Heilongjiang Province,and by using spatial interpolation,climate tendency regression,sliding T test,M—K test,Morlet wavelet analysis,PCA,Hurst index analysis and other mathematical methods,the temporal variation,spatial distribution,mutability,period-icity,future trend of CCDI in Heilongjiang Province and its impact on grain yield are explored.The results show that the CCDI in Heilongjiang Province showed a trend of decreasing by 0.4d per 10a from 1991 to 2020,and the interannual vari-ation fluctuated greatly,which became more obvious in the 21st century.Although there are four mutation years of CCDI in Heilongjiang Province,the mutation trend is not significant,and its periodic characteristics are more obvious in the early ten years of the 21st century.The CCDI in Heilongjiang Province is divided into winter and summer half year.The winter half year is mainly increasing trend,and the summer half year is mainly decreasing trend.The CCDI is negatively correlated with the grain yield in the summer half year.During the study period,the average annual CCDI in Heilongjiang Province showed a distribution pattern of more in the north and less in the south,more in the west and less in the east.In the 21st century,the area of CCDI 60>d≥50 was greatly reduced,and the area of CCDI≥60d was significantly in-creased.The CCDI in Heilongjiang Province will still show a decreasing trend in the future,and the trend will be more ob-vious in the northwest,northeast and south-central regions of Heilongjiang Province.关键词
持续低温指数(CCDI)/时空变化/M—K检验/Morlet小波/Hurst指数Key words
CCDI/temporal and spatial changes/M—K test/Morlet wavelet/Hurst index分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张金峰,陈农,闫敏慧,徐占胜,高玲,杨宁,王蕾..黑龙江省1991-2020年CCDI时空变化特征及未来趋势分析[J].灾害学,2025,40(2):71-76,6.基金项目
黑龙江省自然科学基金联合引导项目"气候变化背景下黑龙江玉米生育期气候资源利用率评估研究"(LH2021D020) （LH2021D020）
