灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(2)：77-83,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.02.012
夏玉米主产区月尺度极端气候的时空特征及其对产量影响
Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Monthly Extreme Climate in the Main Production Areas of Summer Maize and Its Impacts on Yield
摘要
Abstract
Quantifying the possible relationship between summer maize yield and extreme climate is conducive to cop-ing with the influence of climate anomalies on maize planting.Based on the daily precipitation,maximum temperature,maximum wind speed data of 94 stations in the summer maize producing provinces from 1980 to 2019,the spatio-temporal characteristics of monthly extreme climate indices during growth period are identified by principal component analysis and Mann-Kendall trend test.The response of summer maize yield fluctuation to extreme climatic indices is quantified by first-order difference model.The main results are as follows:①the heavy rainfall and extreme high temperature generally shows a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north;②the extreme continuous high temperature stress in July and Au-gust at nearly 60%stations shows a significant increase trend;③ yield in Hebei,Shandong and Anhui are more sensitive to the negative effect of extreme high temperature,while yield in Henan and Jiangsu are more sensitive to the negative effect of heavy rainfalls;④ the changes of extreme climate events in the past 40 years,especially the intensification of high tem-peratures in July had led to reduced production in various provinces.The study results have clarified the negative yield ef-fects of multiple types of extreme climate events,providing the scientific basis for identifying and defending dominate meteo-rological disasters of summer maize.关键词
夏玉米/单产/极端气候/时空特征Key words
summer maize/yield per unit/extreme climate/spatio-temporal characteristics分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
赵丽平,黄进,宫燕,张彩林,李旸,张方敏..夏玉米主产区月尺度极端气候的时空特征及其对产量影响[J].灾害学,2025,40(2):77-83,7.基金项目
江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项"极端气候事件条件下农田生态系统碳汇评估与减排增汇关键技术创新及示范"(BE2023400) （BE2023400）
