中国农业科技导报2025，Vol.27Issue(4)：230-238,9.DOI:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2023.0722
贵州茶树春季低温灾害气候风险评估与区划
Climate Risk Assessment and Zoning of Spring Low Temperature Disasters of Tea Trees in Guizhou
摘要
Abstract
Low temperature disaster in spring is the main meteorological disaster affecting tea trees in Guizhou.Climate risk assessment and zoning of spring low temperature disasters of tea trees could provide technical support for the scientific and reasonable layout of Guizhou tea industry,reducing losses caused by low temperature disasters,and designing low temperature meteorological index insurance products.Based on the theory of natural disaster risk,risk assessment and zoning of spring low temperature disasters of tea trees in Guizhou province were conducted using daily average temperature and daily minimum temperature data from 84 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020,as well as tea planting area and yield data from 1999 to 2017.Mathematical statistics,information entropy weight method,analytic hierarchy process,and geographic information system(GIS)spatial analysis methods were used to assess the risk.The results showed that the risk index of low temperature induced disasters was closely related to geographical factors,and high value areas mainly distributed in high altitude areas in space.The overall sensitivity index of the pregnant disaster environment showed a decreasing trend from west to east.The high-risk area of low temperature disasters of tea trees in Guizhou was 9.07×105 hm2,accounting for approximately 5.15%.The medium to high risk area was 3.16×106 hm2,accounting for approximately 17.96%.The low risk area was 3.49×106 hm2,accounting for approximately 19.81%.High risk and medium to high risk levels were mainly distributed in Weining county,Hezhang county,Nayong county,Dafang county,Shuicheng district,western part of Duyun city,central part of Leishan county,northern part of Jiangkou county,the southern part of Yinjiang county,Meitan county,and the western part of Fenggang county,the western and eastern parts of Zheng'an county and the western part of Wuchuan county.The low-risk areas were mainly distributed in the southwest of Beipan river basin,the north of Chishui river basin,and the southeast of Duliu river basin.关键词
茶树/霜冻害/倒春寒/风险区划/贵州Key words
tea tree/frost damage/late spring cold/risk zoning/Guizhou分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张波,罗阳欢,李浪,梁恒飞,胡家敏..贵州茶树春季低温灾害气候风险评估与区划[J].中国农业科技导报,2025,27(4):230-238,9.基金项目
贵州省基础研究计划(自然科学类)项目(黔科合基础-ZK[2023]一般230,黔科合基础-ZK[2021]一般272) （自然科学类）
贵州省气象局创新团队项目(黔气科合T[2024]06号). （黔气科合T[2024]06号）
