中国水利Issue(6)：31-37,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.06.003
基于NEX-GDDP降尺度数据的山东省干旱时空特征研究
Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Shandong Province based on NEX-GDDP downscaling data
摘要
Abstract
To elucidate the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought and propose corresponding emergency countermeasures,this study focuses on Shandong Province.Utilizing high-resolution NEX-GDDP downscaled data and historical observations,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of typical drought disasters(March to October)under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2020-2029 and 2030-2039 were analyzed.The results indicate that during these periods,drought risk intensity in Shandong exhibits an increasing trend from east to west.Severe droughts are more prevalent in spring and autumn,with moderate and severe drought areas mainly concentrated in the western regions,particularly in Binzhou City,which should be prioritized for risk prevention and control.In the forthcoming period,although fluctuations are observed in the maximum number of consecutive dry days,the overall trend is upward.While light and moderate droughts remain the most common types in Shandong,the increasing frequency of moderate and severe droughts warrants heightened vigilance.Based on these findings,emergency countermeasures for drought disasters are proposed,providing a theoretical basis for future drought resistance activities.关键词
NEX-GDDP/干旱/时空特征/应急对策Key words
NEX-GDDP/drought/spatiotemporal characteristics/emergency countermeasures分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
张延松,曹幸幸,杜文州,王露瑶,张继斌..基于NEX-GDDP降尺度数据的山东省干旱时空特征研究[J].中国水利,2025,(6):31-37,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52104201). （52104201）
